CoW Protocol/USDC Market Overview – 2025-11-05

• CoW/USDC traded in a tight range, forming a key support level at 0.1875 and resistance at 0.1901
• Momentum shifted after 20:30 ET, with a strong bullish breakout and a 0.1964 high by 03:00 ET
• Heavy volume confirmed the upward move, but a sharp pullback in overnight trading suggests consolidation

The CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) pair traded between 0.1881 (open) and 0.1964 (high) on 2025-11-05, closing at 0.1918 as of 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of 15.24 million COW and a turnover of ~$2.95 million, indicating moderate but directional trading activity as the pair moved from consolidation to a sharp rebound in early trading.

Structure and trend formation were dominated by a key support level at 0.1875 and a resistance cluster at 0.1901–0.1903, which the price tested repeatedly before breaking through. A Bullish Engulfing pattern emerged at 20:30 ET, with a long bullish body confirming a reversal from a bearish consolidation phase. Subsequent higher highs and closing prices above key resistance levels suggested renewed buying pressure and potential for a short-term trend reversal.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart showed a crossover of 20/50 SMA, confirming a bullish bias during the late evening and overnight hours. On a daily chart, the 50/100/200 SMA alignment had previously indicated a bearish bias, but the recent price action may have started to test the 50 SMA as a potential new support level. This could indicate a shift in momentum if the price holds above 0.1900.

The MACD crossed above the signal line at 21:00 ET, aligning with the breakout, and remained positive through 06:00 ET before diverging with a price pullback. RSI moved into overbought territory (above 70) after the 0.1964 high and later returned to neutral levels, indicating a potential for profit-taking. Bollinger Bands showed expansion during the breakout and contraction during the overnight consolidation, suggesting a potential for renewed directional movement following a period of consolidation.

Volume spiked significantly during the bullish breakout phase, with a daily volume high of 2.56 million COW at 20:30 ET. The volume profile aligned closely with price during the upward move but diverged during the pullback, which could signal a test of short-term support. The notional turnover also rose sharply during the breakout, confirming strength in the move, though the overnight sell-off saw lower volumes, suggesting a lack of bearish conviction.

Backtest Hypothesis: A backtest using a Bullish-Engulfing pattern strategy could be applied to CoW/USDC by detecting the pattern at 20:30 ET and entering a long position with a stop loss placed below the 0.1875 support. A target level of 0.1960–0.1964 (based on recent resistance and prior high) could be used, with exits either at the target or upon a close below 0.1875. A 3-day holding period would allow for a full test of the breakout. To proceed, the correct, exchange-recognised ticker symbol for CoW/USDC should be confirmed. If unavailable, the strategy could be applied to an alternative pair with similar volatility and volume characteristics.