CoW Protocol/USDC Market Overview for 2025-09-19

• CoW/USDC traded in a tight range until a breakout above 0.3478 around 19:00 ET.
• Momentum picked up after 01:00 ET, pushing the price to a high of 0.3563 before consolidation.
• Volatility spiked early in the morning but declined sharply in the afternoon session.
• A bearish divergence appeared in the RSI after 14:00 ET, suggesting weakening bullish momentum.
• The final hour saw a sharp pullback to 0.3361, indicating growing bearish pressure.

CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) opened at 0.3441 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.3361 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET, forming a broad range with a high of 0.3563 and a low of 0.3344 over the past 24 hours. Total traded volume amounted to 134,787.4 with a notional turnover of 45,819.3 USD-equivalent, reflecting moderate to high market participation.

Structure & Formations

The price action formed a broad bullish flag pattern between 0.3441 and 0.3563, punctuated by a breakout and retest failure in the afternoon. Key support levels emerged at 0.3453 (61.8% Fib) and 0.3428 (38.2% Fib) on the 15-minute chart. A long bearish candle forming at 14:45 ET marked a potential reversal from 0.3446 to 0.3361, signaling a shift in sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages showed a positive crossover during the morning hours, confirming a short-term bullish bias. However, by late afternoon, the 20 MA had crossed below the 50 MA, indicating weakening momentum. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA held above the 100 and 200-period lines, but the price failed to confirm a strong break above it, suggesting potential bearish pressure ahead.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed a bullish divergence in the early morning hours, but it flattened and turned bearish by 09:30 ET, with a bearish crossover in the mid-morning. The RSI hit overbought territory above 60 during the morning surge but fell into oversold conditions after 15:00 ET, highlighting a significant shift in momentum. A bearish divergence in the RSI was observed between 14:15 ET and 15:00 ET, confirming the weakening trend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded early in the morning session as the price broke above the upper band, reaching a 24-hour high of 0.3563. After a brief consolidation, it moved back into the middle band by 03:00 ET. A contraction in band width occurred between 09:00 and 11:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion as the price dropped below the lower band in the afternoon. This suggests a period of low volatility preceding a sharp directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the early morning hours, reaching a 24-hour peak of 26,835.0 at 01:15 ET as the price surged to 0.3563. This volume was largely confirmatory of the bullish move. However, after 14:00 ET, a sharp decline in volume accompanied the pullback to 0.3361, indicating weak conviction in the bearish move. Notional turnover mirrored the volume pattern, with the largest turnover also occurring at 01:15 ET.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying the Fibonacci tool to the recent swing from 0.3441 to 0.3563, the 38.2% retracement level at 0.3517 acted as a minor resistance before the price declined. The 61.8% level at 0.3497 was tested twice before the afternoon sell-off. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracements from the previous week’s range indicated key potential turning points ahead, suggesting that 0.3400 could be a critical support level in the near term.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy focuses on identifying bullish and bearish divergences in the RSI and MACD, combined with volume confirmation, to trigger trade entries. Specifically, a long entry is generated when the price breaks above the 20 MA with confirmation of a bullish RSI divergence and increasing volume. A short entry is considered when the price breaks below the 20 MA with a bearish RSI divergence and declining volume. The recent morning breakout met the long entry criteria, but the afternoon breakdown with bearish RSI and volume divergence would have triggered an exit. This strategy aligns well with the observed price action and could be further refined with stop-loss placement at key Fibonacci levels.