CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) Market Overview: October 25, 2025

• COWUSDC consolidates near 0.2262–0.2279, with bearish pressure intensifying after 0.2275
• Volume spikes occurred between 20:45 ET and 01:00 ET, with turnover peaking at ~$9k
• RSI remains in neutral territory, suggesting a potential reversal could be near
• Bollinger Bands show moderate contraction at 12:00 ET, hinting at a low-volatility phase
• Morning-Star-like patterns visible at 19:45 and 22:30 ET, though without confirmation

The CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) pair opened at 0.2256 at 12:00 ET–1 and reached a high of 0.2284 before closing at 0.2262 at 12:00 ET on October 25. Total volume over the 24-hour window stood at 93,261.8 units, with total turnover amounting to approximately $21,000. Price action has shown moderate volatility, with key consolidation zones forming between 0.2262 and 0.2279.

The 15-minute OHLC data reveals a consolidation phase with two potential Morning-Star-like patterns at 19:45 ET and 22:30 ET, both followed by limited bullish follow-through. A key resistance appears to form around 0.2275–0.2279, where volume spiked and price failed to hold above after 01:00 ET. Notable support is observed at 0.2262–0.2265, where the price found a floor in the early morning session. A bearish engulfing pattern is visible at 03:15 ET, indicating growing bearish sentiment.

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The RSI remains in the mid-50 range, avoiding overbought (70+) or oversold (30–) territory, which suggests a balanced momentum phase. However, the MACD histogram has shown a bearish divergence in the early morning hours, with price making higher lows while the MACD makes lower lows. Bollinger Bands have contracted significantly after 12:00 ET, indicating a possible breakout or reversal phase. On the 20-period EMA, the price closed slightly below the 20-EMA at 0.2267, suggesting a bearish bias in the short term. The 50-EMA remains above at 0.2274, creating a bearish crossover risk if price continues to consolidate below this level.

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Backtest Hypothesis
The potential for a Morning-Star pattern in COWUSDC suggests a bullish setup that could be exploited by entering a long position at the close of the third candle in the pattern. Given the 15-minute granularity of the data, these setups appeared visible at 19:45 ET and 22:30 ET. A target of 0.2284, the high observed during the consolidation phase, could serve as a reasonable profit exit, though the lack of a stop-loss rule increases exposure to false breakouts. To refine the strategy, it would be critical to confirm the exact API symbol and exchange for accurate backtesting, as discrepancies could lead to misleading results. Additionally, aligning the strategy with a benchmark like HOLD.P would offer valuable context on relative performance.

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