CoW Protocol/USDC (COWUSDC) Market Overview

• COWUSDC traded in a 24-hour range of $0.2666 to $0.2987 with a 12.8% upward bias.• Strong volume expansion occurred during the overnight session, confirming the upward move.• A bullish breakout above key resistance $0.2897 saw follow-through buying into $0.2945.• RSI overbought at 68 suggests caution, while Bollinger Bands show increasing volatility.• No major divergences seen between price and turnover, indicating aligned sentiment.

The CoW Protocol/USDC pair (COWUSDC) opened at $0.2666 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.2942 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.2987 and a low of $0.2666. Total notional volume for the 24-hour window was $516,456.8 (volume: 1,832,563.2 USDC). The price trend showed a strong overnight breakout, followed by consolidation during European and North American hours.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period was marked by a key breakout above the resistance level at $0.2897, confirmed by a bullish engulfing pattern between 23:45 and 00:00 ET. Following this, price tested the former resistance turned support at $0.2893 before moving into fresh territory above $0.2945. A bearish harami developed during the afternoon (11:30–12:00 ET), hinting at potential short-term profit-taking. Notable support levels observed were at $0.2868 and $0.2835, with resistance forming at $0.2924 and $0.2963.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period EMAs crossed above key support at $0.2868, signaling a shift into bullish territory. The 50-period EMA is currently at $0.2893, while the 20-period EMA is at $0.2917, both trending upwards and supporting the current momentum. For daily timeframes, the 50-period EMA is at $0.2836, and the 200-period EMA at $0.2780, both lagging behind the current price and suggesting a longer-term bullish divergence.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line during the overnight session, aligning with the breakout in price. The histogram is positive, indicating increasing momentum. RSI reached 68 by 10:15 ET, signaling overbought conditions, but remained above 60 into the early afternoon, suggesting continued buyer interest. A pullback into the 55–60 range would likely indicate a healthier equilibrium for short-term traders to consider entries.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly as price broke out of the $0.2840–$0.2900 consolidation range, pushing the upper Bollinger Band higher. At the time of writing, price is trading just below the upper band at $0.2950, suggesting elevated volatility. The width of the bands indicates a continuation of the trend is possible if volume remains supportive and price does not close below the lower band, currently at $0.2875.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the overnight hours, peaking at $79,895.5 (15-minute interval) between 00:00 and 00:45 ET, coinciding with a breakout above $0.2897. Total notional turnover for the 24-hour period was $516,456.8, with a clear volume-weighted center in the $0.2865–$0.2945 range. The afternoon pullback saw volume drop significantly, suggesting a temporary lack of conviction from sellers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci levels were drawn from the recent low at $0.2666 to the high at $0.2987. Price has now tested the 61.8% retraction level at $0.2865 and is approaching the 50% level at $0.2827 for a potential pullback. In the short term, the 38.2% level at $0.2924 has acted as a key support/resistance pivot during the afternoon consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve entering long at the breakout of the $0.2897 resistance with a stop-loss placed just below $0.2868, and a take-profit target at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of $0.2950–$0.2963. A trailing stop could be employed as price moves beyond this, with a 10% risk-reward ratio. This aligns with the observed MACD and RSI momentum and is supported by volume confirmation at key inflection points. The strategy would benefit from incorporating a 15-minute EMA crossover as a filtering condition to avoid false breakouts.