CoW Protocol/USD Coin Market Overview

• Price surged 11.2% in 24 hours, closing at 0.3292 after a 0.3409 peak.
• Bullish momentum visible in late-day volume spikes, especially after 0.3385.
• RSI and MACD show weakening bullish momentum with potential overbought concerns.
• Volatility expanded in midday, with Bollinger Bands widening as buying pressure increased.
• Volume surged over 11k in the last 24 hours, confirming price action but showing some divergences.

The CoW Protocol/USD Coin (COWUSDC) pair opened at 0.3285 on 2025-09-04 at 12:00 ET, peaked at 0.3427, and closed at 0.3292 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET. Total volume reached 146,141.5, while notional turnover stood at approximately $48,164.50. The pair displayed a strong bullish bias midday, followed by consolidation and a mild pullback.

Structure & Formations

COWUSDC broke above a key horizontal resistance near 0.3385, forming a bullish continuation pattern as volume surged. The price later consolidated into a range between 0.3376 and 0.3389. A key support level appears at 0.3352, which held briefly before the price broke lower. A small bearish engulfing pattern emerged near 0.3391, suggesting potential near-term exhaustion in the bullish move. A doji at 0.3378 also signals indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period EMAs are trending upward, confirming bullish momentum. The 20 EMA is above the 50 EMA, indicating short-term strength. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is trending upward, and the price is above both 100 and 200-period SMAs, suggesting a strong medium-term bullish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed above the signal line, confirming bullish momentum early in the session, though it has started to flatten out in the last few hours. The RSI climbed into overbought territory (above 60) during the peak of the rally but has since corrected to 53.7, suggesting momentum is slowing. This may indicate a potential pullback in the near term.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the rally, with the price moving from the lower band to nearly the upper band. Currently, the price is near the middle band, indicating a potential period of consolidation. If the price breaks below the lower band, it could signal a deeper correction. Conversely, a break above the upper band may confirm stronger bullish momentum.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged significantly during the morning and early afternoon, with the largest spike at 12:30 ET (0.34) at 27,805.4 volume. Notional turnover followed closely, with the largest turnover at 0.3427. However, in the last few hours, volume has declined slightly while the price has pulled back, suggesting some divergence. This could indicate weakening bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price retraced to the 61.8% level of the recent 0.3385–0.3427 move, finding support at 0.3391. The 38.2% level at 0.3396 also provided temporary support before the price fell. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement level appears at 0.3341 and acted as a key support zone, which was partially tested in the afternoon.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bullish continuation patterns and strong volume confirmation, a potential backtest strategy could involve entering long at 0.3385 with a stop-loss just below 0.3352 and a take-profit at 0.3425 or higher. The MACD crossover and RSI divergence could be used as timing signals, with exits considered if RSI falls below 50 or the price breaks below the lower Bollinger Band. This approach would aim to capture the momentum without overexposing to potential overbought conditions or divergence in volume.