COVID Vaccine Boom Creates Unsustainable Revenue Models for Moderna, Novavax, and BioNTech

Moderna generated $1.944B in full-year 2025 revenue, down 39.2% YoY, with a negative $2.822B net loss and negative $2.065B free cash flow. Novavax posted profitable results with $0.11 EPS and $147.14M revenue, though it carries negative shareholder equity and high volatility. BioNTech reported positive full-year 2025 revenue growth of 4.3% to €2.87B with €17.2B in cash and positive €403M operating cash flow. Only BioNTech is positioned to fund a multi-year transition backed by a fortress balance sheet and pipeline breadth.