Coupang's Trading Volume Surges 91.8% to 373rd in Daily Activity as Earnings Loom

Market Snapshot

Coupang (CPNG) experienced a modest price increase of 0.03% on November 3, 2025, with a trading volume of $0.36 billion—a 91.8% surge compared to the previous day. This elevated volume ranked the stock 373rd in daily trading activity, reflecting heightened investor interest ahead of its upcoming earnings report. Despite the sharp rise in volume, the price movement remained relatively flat, suggesting short-term uncertainty or anticipation of the company’s quarterly results. The stock’s 52-week performance has been positive, with a 18.89% gain, but its recent underperformance against broader online retail peers, which have seen an average 3.5% decline over the past month, highlights sector-specific challenges.

Key Drivers

Earnings Expectations and Historical Performance

Coupang is preparing to release its Q3 2025 earnings on November 4, with analysts forecasting revenue of $9.02 billion, representing a 14.7% year-over-year (YoY) growth. This marks a deceleration from the 27.2% YoY growth recorded in the same quarter of 2024. Adjusted earnings are expected to reach $0.04 per share, a modest improvement from the $0.02 EPS reported in Q2 2025. The company’s recent earnings history has been mixed: while it beat revenue estimates by 2.1% in Q2 2025, it missed EPS expectations by $0.04, leading to a 6.05% post-earnings price drop. Over the past four quarters, Coupang has exceeded EPS estimates in three instances, with an average surprise of 157.14%, indicating some capacity to outperform. However, three revenue misses in the last two years underscore operational volatility.

Institutional and Analyst Sentiment

Institutional confidence in Coupang remains strong, with hedge funds and institutional investors collectively owning 83.72% of the stock. Notable investors, including Envestnet Asset Management and Jennison Associates, have increased their holdings in Q2 2025, with Envestnet raising its stake by 0.9% to 2.05 million shares and Jennison acquiring 59,660 shares worth $1.79 million. Analysts have maintained a cautiously optimistic stance, with a consensus “Buy” rating based on two analyst ratings and an average one-year price target of $34.67, 8.3% above the current price of $32.09. However, ratings from major firms have been mixed: Deutsche Bank downgraded the stock to “Hold” in August, while Arete Research upgraded it to “Buy” in September with a $40 target. This divergence reflects uncertainty about Coupang’s ability to sustain margin expansion amid rising operating expenses and competitive pressures.

Competitive Landscape and Strategic Initiatives

Coupang’s performance is influenced by its positioning within the online retail sector. Peers like Carvana and Wayfair have shown divergent outcomes: Carvana reported 54.5% YoY revenue growth but fell 13.8% post-earnings, while Wayfair’s 8.1% growth led to a 19.8% rally. These outcomes highlight the sector’s volatility. Coupang’s ecosystem strategy—integrating retail, food delivery (Coupang Eats), and entertainment (Coupang Play)—is a key growth lever, with 24.1 million active buyers as of Q2 2025, up 9.4% YoY. The company has also expanded into Taiwan, where triple-digit revenue growth in Q2 2025 underscores its international ambitions. However, profitability pressures persist, with full-year adjusted EBITDA loss guidance for Developing Offerings raised to $900–$950 million due to heavy investments in AI infrastructure and logistics.

Macroeconomic and Sector Headwinds

Broader economic uncertainties, including potential tariffs and corporate tax cuts, have dampened investor sentiment in 2025. The online retail sector has underperformed, with share prices down 3.5% on average over the past month. Coupang has fared slightly better, declining 1%, but its forward P/E ratio of 159.96 and forward sales multiple of 1.5x suggest investors are valuing growth over immediate profitability. Analysts note that while Coupang’s revenue growth (16.4% YoY in Q2 2025) outpaces peers like eBay, its gross profit ($2.56 billion) and return on equity (0.71%) lag behind, indicating inefficiencies in scaling. The company’s reliance on capital-intensive expansion and its exposure to global supply chain dynamics further complicate its path to sustainable profitability.

Forward-Looking Guidance and Market Reaction

The upcoming earnings report will be critical for assessing Coupang’s ability to meet expectations. Management’s commentary on margin stability, customer engagement (notably cross-platform usage), and fulfillment efficiency will shape investor sentiment. A clean quarter with improved margins could reinforce the stock’s 45% year-to-date rally, while a flattening in profitability or slower ecosystem adoption may trigger a reevaluation of its valuation. Analysts also highlight the importance of guidance for the next quarter, as historical data shows price volatility of up to 11% following earnings surprises. With the market pricing in modest growth and a mixed analyst outlook, the post-earnings reaction could determine whether Coupang continues as a “Moderate Buy” or faces a correction amid heightened scrutiny.