Coupang Surges 9.6% on Data Breach Containment: Is the Relief Rally Sustainable?

Summary
• Coupang (CPNG) surges 9.58% intraday to $24.985, reclaiming 13% of year-to-date losses
• Data breach scope limited to 3,000 accounts; no payment data compromised
• RSI at 18.13 (oversold), MACD -1.61 (bearish), and Bollinger Bands near lower bound
• Options chain sees CPNG20260102C24 contract surge 1,233% in turnover as bulls bet on rebound

Coupang’s stock is staging a dramatic relief rally after confirming the data breach involved only 3,000 accounts with no sensitive data leaked. The intraday move has pushed the stock 9.6% higher, trading near its 52-week low of $19.02. Technical indicators suggest oversold conditions, while options activity highlights aggressive bullish positioning. The key question: Can this rebound sustain amid lingering cybersecurity concerns?

Data Breach Containment Sparks Relief Rally
Coupang’s 9.6% intraday surge stems from its confirmation that the December data breach—initially feared to expose 33 million customer accounts—was limited to 3,000 accounts with no payment or login data compromised. The company identified a former employee as the perpetrator, who deleted the stolen data before sharing it. This clarification shifted market sentiment from panic to relief, triggering a short-covering rally. The stock’s recovery aligns with its 52-week low, suggesting investors are reassessing the risk-reward profile after the 19% drop in early December.

Internet Retail Sector Mixed as Amazon Flat
The Internet Retail sector remains fragmented, with Amazon (AMZN) up 0.11% despite Coupang’s surge. While Coupang’s rally reflects crisis management success, Amazon’s muted performance highlights divergent investor priorities. Coupang’s focus on membership-driven growth and international expansion contrasts with Amazon’s broader e-commerce challenges. The sector’s lack of cohesion underscores that Coupang’s rally is stock-specific, driven by its unique breach resolution and market positioning.

Bullish Options and ETFs for Coupang’s Short-Term Rebound
• RSI: 18.13 (oversold), MACD: -1.61 (bearish), 200D MA: $27.85 (above price), Bollinger Bands: $21.17–$29.40 (near lower bound)
• Key Levels: Support at $24.605 (intraday low), resistance at $25.38 (intraday high). A break above $25.38 could target the 200D MA at $27.85.
• Options Focus: Aggressive bulls should prioritize CPNG20260102C24 and CPNG20260102C24.5, which offer high leverage and liquidity.

Top Option 1: CPNG20260102C24
• Code: CPNG20260102C24, Type: Call, Strike: $24, Expiry: 2026-01-02
• IV: 47.50% (moderate), Leverage: 20.70%, Delta: 0.704 (aggressive), Theta: -0.122 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.198 (high sensitivity), Turnover: $359,517
• Payoff: At 5% upside ($26.23), payoff = $2.23/share. This contract benefits from high gamma and leverage, ideal for a sharp rebound.

Top Option 2: CPNG20260102C24.5
• Code: CPNG20260102C24.5, Type: Call, Strike: $24.5, Expiry: 2026-01-02
• IV: 48.36% (moderate), Leverage: 27.60%, Delta: 0.595 (moderate), Theta: -0.115 (high time decay), Gamma: 0.218 (high sensitivity), Turnover: $14,367
• Payoff: At 5% upside ($26.23), payoff = $1.73/share. This contract balances leverage and delta for a controlled rally.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider CPNG20260102C24 into a break above $25.38. Conservative traders should monitor the 200D MA at $27.85 for a potential trend reversal.

Backtest Coupang Stock Performance
The backtest of CPNG's performance after a 10% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows mixed results. While the stock experienced a maximum return of 2.77% on December 26, 2025, which is the highest return during the backtest period, the overall average return was only 0.95% over 30 days. The 10-day return was 0.33%, and the 3-day return was 0.11%. This suggests that while CPNG had opportunities for significant gains, they were not consistently realized, and the stock's performance was somewhat volatile.

Coupang’s Relief Rally: A Short-Term Bounce or Setup for 2026?
Coupang’s 9.6% intraday surge reflects a short-term relief rally driven by breach containment, but technical indicators suggest caution. The stock remains below its 200D MA and 52-week high, with RSI in oversold territory. While the options market is bullish, sustained momentum will require a break above $25.38 and confirmation of renewed investor confidence. Amazon (AMZN), the sector leader, is up 0.11%, indicating broader retail sector neutrality. Watch for a close above $25.38 or a breakdown below $24.605 to confirm the rally’s validity.