Coupang (CPNG) Surges 2.9% Amidst Mysterious Bullish Momentum: What's Fueling the Surge?

Summary
• Coupang (CPNG) trades at $29.575, up 2.905% from $28.74
• Intraday range narrows to $29.04–$29.615 with 0.446% turnover rate
• Options chain shows 20 active contracts, 90.08% implied volatility on 29-strike puts

Coupang’s 2.9% rally on 2025-08-04 has ignited speculation among traders. The stock’s sharp rebound from 29.04 to 29.615 intraday suggests technical buying pressure, while the options market shows aggressive positioning in 29- and 30-strike contracts. With Amazon (AMZN) down 1.015% and Coupang’s RSI at 26.56 (oversold), the move hints at a potential short-term reversal in the e-commerce sector’s risk-on trade.

Technical Bounce Off 52W Low Fuels Short-Term Optimism
Coupang’s 2.9% surge stems from a sharp rebound off its 52-week low of $19.02, with intraday price action showing a bullish reversal pattern. The stock traded within a tight $0.575 range, testing the 29.04 support level twice before breaking higher. This aligns with the 200-day moving average at $25.12, which has acted as a psychological floor for the past year. The RSI at 26.56 and MACD histogram at -0.32 suggest oversold conditions, triggering algorithmic buying and options-driven volatility. No fundamental news was provided, but the 0.446% turnover rate indicates institutional accumulation.

Retail Sector Mixed as Coupang Outperforms Amazon’s Decline
While Amazon (AMZN) declined 1.015%, Coupang’s 2.9% rally highlights divergent performance within the retail sector. Amazon’s weakness may stem from broader e-commerce headwinds, but Coupang’s technical rebound suggests investor rotation into undervalued tech plays. The stock’s 29.575 price is 14.5% above its 52W low, contrasting with Amazon’s 2.9% drop. This divergence points to Coupang being perceived as a high-beta play in a sector grappling with tariff uncertainty and shifting consumer spending patterns.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Puts and Calls for Coupang’s Volatile Move
• 200-day average: $25.12 (below current price)
• RSI: 26.56 (oversold)
• MACD Histogram: -0.32 (bearish momentum)
• Bollinger Bands: 28.916 (lower) to 31.774 (upper)

Coupang’s technical setup favors short-term volatility plays. The 29.575 level is a critical pivot point, with the 30.08 30D MA and 25.12 200D MA forming a bullish channel. For options, two contracts stand out:

1. CPNG20250808P29
• Put Option, Strike: $29, Expiry: 2025-08-08
• IV: 90.08% (high volatility)
• LVR: 30.12% (moderate leverage)
• Delta: -0.410 (sensitive to price swings)
• Theta: -0.01026 (minimal time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1249 (high sensitivity to price movement)
• Turnover: 5,388 (liquid)
This put offers 30%+ leverage if CPNG dips below 29.00, with 90% IV implying strong bearish expectations. A 5% downside scenario (ST = $28.10) yields max payoff of $0.90 per share.

2. CPNG20250808C30
• Call Option, Strike: $30, Expiry: 2025-08-08
• IV: 83.29% (high volatility)
• LVR: 31.40% (high leverage)
• Delta: 0.456 (moderate directional bias)
• Theta: -0.220 (aggressive time decay)
• Gamma: 0.1378 (high sensitivity)
• Turnover: 15,077 (high liquidity)
This call benefits from Coupang’s 29.575 breakout. A 5% upside (ST = $31.05) generates $1.05 payoff, with 83% IV suggesting bullish momentum. The 31.40% leverage ratio amplifies gains if CPNG closes above $30.50 by 8/8.

Trading Insight: Aggressive bulls should buy CPNG20250808C30 if CPNG breaks 29.615 intraday high. Conservative traders can short CPNG20250808P29 if the stock consolidates above 29.50.

Backtest Coupang Stock Performance
The 3% intraday surge in CPNG has historically led to mixed short-to-medium-term performance. While the 3-day win rate is 49.63%, indicating a slight majority of positive returns in the immediate term, the 10-day and 30-day win rates are lower at 49.63% and 49.45%, respectively. This suggests that while CPNG may experience a brief uptick, it is not consistently followed by continued positive performance in the medium term.

Act Now: Coupang’s Volatility Presents High-Reward Opportunities
Coupang’s 2.9% rally is a technical rebound from oversold conditions, but the 90.08% IV on 29-strike puts and 31.40% leverage on 30-strike calls indicate a high-risk, high-reward environment. Watch for a breakdown below 29.50 to trigger further puts or a breakout above 29.615 to validate the rally. Amazon’s 1.015% drop underscores sector fragility, but Coupang’s momentum suggests it could outperform. Traders should prioritize liquid options and monitor the 29.00 support level. Takeaway: Buy CPNG20250808C30 for 5% upside or short CPNG20250808P29 if the stock consolidates above 29.50.