Coupang Stock Surges 8.96% as Three-Day Rally Drives 11.19% Gain, Technical Indicators Signal Bullish Bias

Coupang (CPNG) has surged 8.96% in the most recent session, marking a three-day rally with an 11.19% cumulative gain. This sharp reversal from prior weakness suggests a potential short-term bullish bias, warranting a multi-indicator analysis to assess sustainability and risk levels.

Candlestick Theory

The recent price action shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, forming a bullish ascending triangle pattern, with resistance clustering around $31.50 (the recent close) and support near $28.33 (a prior low). A breakout above $31.50 could target the next resistance at $32.50, while a breakdown below $28.33 may retest $27.00. Key candlestick formations, such as the bullish engulfing pattern on 2025-09-08, reinforce the near-term optimism. However, bearish divergence in the RSI and MACD during the 2025-08-06–08-07 selloff (prices fell 6.05% in one day) suggests caution in overreliance on short-term bullish signals.

Moving Average Theory

The 50-day MA (calculated as ~$29.80) currently sits above the 100-day (~$28.50) and 200-day (~$26.00) averages, forming a “golden cross” that supports a bullish trend. The 200-day MA acts as a critical baseline; a sustained close above $31.50 would align the short-term MA with the long-term trend, enhancing the likelihood of continued strength. However, the 50-day MA’s proximity to the 100-day MA (~$1.30 gap) indicates narrowing momentum, suggesting a potential consolidation phase if the price fails to break above $32.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD line (12-period) crossed above the signal line (26-period) on 2025-09-05, confirming bullish momentum, while the histogram’s expansion aligns with the recent rally. The KDJ indicator (K=80, D=75, J=90) suggests overbought conditions, with the stochastic lines forming a potential bearish divergence as prices near $31.50. This hints at a possible pullback, though the RSI’s current level (discussed below) provides a more immediate warning.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded in recent weeks, with the bands widening from a 1.5% range to 2.5% as of 2025-09-08. The price’s position near the upper band (~$31.50) indicates overbought territory, increasing the probability of a retest of the middle band (~$30.00). A contraction in band width during the 2025-08-22–08-25 period (bands narrowed to 1.2%) preceded the recent breakout, suggesting the current volatility may persist.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume spiked to $1.46B on 2025-09-08, confirming the bullish breakout. However, volume has since declined to ~$235M on the most recent upday, signaling potential exhaustion. A key concern is the lack of volume during the 2025-08-29–09-03 rally (~$218M–$235M daily), which contrasts with the explosive volume on the 2025-08-06 selloff ($815M). This asymmetry suggests the recent rally may lack broad institutional participation, increasing the risk of a reversal.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-period RSI (calculated as ~72) currently indicates overbought conditions, with a sharp ascent from ~50 to 72 in three days. While this does not immediately signal a reversal (as strong trends can remain overbought for weeks), a close below 60 would suggest a pullback. Historical context shows RSI dipping below 30 in late August during the $28.33 low, reinforcing the $28.33–$28.41 zone as a critical support cluster.

Fibonacci Retracement

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 2025-04-07 low ($22.06) and 2025-05-16 high ($27.73) reveals key levels: 38.2% ($25.60), 50% ($24.89), and 61.8% ($24.18). The current price ($31.50) exceeds these levels, indicating a potential extension into the 78.6% ($27.00) or 100% ($22.06) zones for a deeper pullback. The 2025-08-06–08-07 selloff (6.05%) nearly reached the 61.8% retracement level ($23.92), suggesting further downside risk if the $31.50 resistance fails.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy using RSI (14-period), MACD (12,26,9), and moving averages (50/200-day) could yield insights. For example, a long entry might trigger when RSI < 30, MACD line crosses above the signal line, and the 50-day MA > 200-day MA. A sell signal occurs when RSI > 70 or the MACD line crosses below the signal line. Testing this against the 2025-08-06–09-08 data shows a potential entry on 2025-08-08 (RSI ~30, 50-day MA ~$29.80 > 200-day MA ~$26.00) with a target at $32.50 and a stop-loss at $28.33. A 2025-08-29–09-03 test of the $28.33 support could validate the strategy’s robustness, though the recent volume asymmetry complicates execution.