Coupang Falls 3.36% as Bearish Patterns and Death Cross Signal Potential Drop to $21.98

Candlestick Theory
Coupang (CPNG) closed the most recent session at $22.42, down 3.36%, forming a bearish engulfing pattern as the lower body dominates. Key support levels emerge at $22.42 (recent low) and $21.98 (December 31 low), while resistance clusters around $23.20 (December 19 high) and $24.33 (December 15 high). The price action suggests a potential breakdown below $22.42 could target $21.98, with a bearish flag pattern visible between December 19 and December 22 lows.
Moving Average Theory
Short-term momentum (50-day MA at ~$25.60) is well below the 200-day MA (~$27.30), confirming a bearish trend. The 100-day MA (~$26.10) also sits above current price levels, reinforcing downward pressure. A death cross is evident, with the 50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA in late November, signaling a prolonged bearish phase. However, a potential bullish crossover may emerge if the 50-day MA reclaims the 200-day MA above $26.50, though this remains unlikely without a sustained rebound.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has turned negative, with the MACD line (-$1.20) crossing below the signal line (-$0.80), confirming bearish momentum. The KDJ (Stochastic) oscillator shows %K at 12 and %D at 18, indicating oversold conditions. However, a bearish divergence emerges as prices hit new lows while %K fails to confirm a lower low, suggesting exhaustion but not an immediate reversal. The RSI (discussed below) corroborates this overbought-to-oversold shift.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded recently, with the 20-period Bollinger Bands widening to $22.34 (lower band) to $24.10 (upper band). The current price near the lower band suggests a potential bounce, but sustained bearish pressure (e.g., below $22.34) may trigger further contraction. The "Bollinger Squeeze" was observed in mid-December, followed by a breakout to the downside, aligning with the recent downtrend.

Volume-Price Relationship
Trading volume spiked to $442 million on the 3.36% drop, validating the bearish move. However, volume has trended lower in recent sessions despite continued declines, suggesting waning short-term conviction. A divergence between price and volume may hint at a potential short-term rebound, though sustained volume above $300 million would be needed to confirm a reversal.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-period RSI stands at 28, confirming oversold territory. Historical data shows RSI dipping below 30 in late December (e.g., 26 on December 16), yet prices continued falling, indicating a strong bearish bias. A rebound above 35 would suggest short-term buying interest, but a break above 40 is required to signal a credible reversal.
Fibonacci Retracement
Drawing retracement levels between the December 15 high ($24.33) and December 22 low ($22.42) identifies key levels: 23.6% at $23.84, 38.2% at $23.46, and 50% at $23.38. The price has tested the 38.2% level ($23.46) twice without holding, suggesting a potential target for further declines toward the 23.6% level ($23.84) if buyers emerge. A breakdown below $22.42 may trigger a test of the 61.8% level at $22.03.
Conclusion
Confluence points emerge at $22.42 (candlestick support, Bollinger Band, and Fibonacci 100% level), where a breakdown could accelerate the decline. Divergences between KDJ and price action caution against over-reliance on oversold signals. While momentum indicators suggest a potential short-term rebound, the broader bearish trend (confirmed by MAs and volume) remains intact. Probabilistic scenarios favor continuation below $22.42 toward $21.98, with a low likelihood of reversal above $23.46 without a surge in volume and bullish divergence.