Coupang's (CPNG) 2.6% Drop Ignites Earnings Jitters as XTX Topco Bolsters Stake and Sector Volatility Intensifies

Summary
• Coupang (CPNG) plunges 2.6% intraday to $28.66, breaching key support levels ahead of Q2 earnings on August 5.
• XTX Topco Ltd triples stake in Q1, now holding 100,461 shares valued at $2.2 million, signaling strategic confidence.
• E-commerce sector leader Amazon (AMZN) plunges 8.2% intraday, amplifying retail sector turbulence.

The South Korean e-commerce titan’s sharp decline coincides with its Q2 earnings window and a broader sector selloff. With Coupang’s 52-week range of $18.16–$31.65 under threat, institutional activity and technical indicators point to a critical juncture. The stock’s 41.5 RSI and bearish MACD histogram suggest momentum has shifted decisively lower.

Earnings Anticipation and Institutional Activity Drive Coupang's Intraday Slide
Coupang’s 2.6% drop reflects a confluence of factors: a looming earnings report (August 5), mixed analyst sentiment, and sector-wide volatility. Despite XTX Topco Ltd’s 166.2% stake increase in Q1 and a $30.08 average analyst price target, the stock remains under pressure from broader e-commerce headwinds. Recent news of Amazon’s Q2 revenue shortfall and AWS underperformance has rattled investor confidence in the sector. Coupang’s own Q1 earnings miss ($0.06 vs. $0.07) and revenue shortfall ($7.91B vs. $8.02B) have amplified skepticism, with the stock now trading 20% below its 52-week high. The bearish RSI and MACD divergence confirm a shift in sentiment ahead of the earnings catalyst.

E-Commerce Sector Volatility Amplifies Coupang's Decline as Amazon Plummets 8.2%
The e-commerce sector is under duress, with Amazon’s 8.2% intraday drop—its worst in months—exacerbating Coupang’s slide. Amazon’s Q2 revenue missed estimates and its AWS segment showed slower growth, casting doubt on the sector’s resilience. Coupang, while growing revenue at 11.2% YoY, faces similar margin pressures and macroeconomic headwinds. The sector’s 52-week volatility range (18.16–31.65) suggests a fragile equilibrium, with Coupang’s 121.5x P/E ratio making it particularly sensitive to sentiment shifts. Amazon’s performance may act as a barometer for Coupang’s near-term direction.

Options and ETFs for Navigating Coupang's Earnings Volatility
• 200-day MA: 25.11 (below) • RSI: 41.5 (bearish) • MACD Histogram: -0.28 (negative divergence) • Bollinger Bands: 29.21 (lower)–31.64 (upper)

Coupang’s technicals signal a high-probability short-term bearish setup. Key levels to watch: 28.61 (intraday low) and 27.5 (support). With earnings in two days, options traders should focus on high-leverage puts and short-dated calls. The stock’s 68.9% implied volatility (IV) and 121.5x P/E ratio suggest a sharp move is likely.

Top Options Picks:
• CPNG20250808P28 (Put):
- Strike: 28 | Expiry: 8/8 | IV: 64.8% | Delta: -0.37 | Theta: -0.003 | Gamma: 0.137 | Turnover: 1,045
- IV: Elevated volatility enhances premium decay potential.
- Delta: Moderate sensitivity to price drops.
- Gamma: High sensitivity to further declines.
- Payoff: If CPNG falls 5% to $27.23, this put would yield $0.77 per contract (28 - 27.23 = 0.77).
- This contract offers optimal leverage (38.85% ratio) and liquidity for a bearish earnings trade.

• CPNG20250808C29 (Call):
- Strike: 29 | Expiry: 8/8 | IV: 63.8% | Delta: 0.49 | Theta: -0.139 | Gamma: 0.147 | Turnover: 7,906
- IV: Attractive volatility for directional bets.
- Delta: Balanced exposure to potential rallies.
- Gamma: Strong sensitivity to price acceleration.
- Payoff: If CPNG rallies 5% to $30.09, this call would yield $1.09 per contract (30.09 - 29 = 1.09).
- High turnover (7,906) ensures liquidity, while 29.34% leverage ratio amplifies potential returns.

Action: Aggressive bears should prioritize CPNG20250808P28 for a 5% downside scenario. Aggressive bulls may scale into CPNG20250808C29 if the stock bounces above 29.21 (lower Bollinger Band).

Backtest Coupang Stock Performance
The backtest of CPNG's performance after a -3% intraday plunge shows favorable short-to-medium-term gains. The 3-Day win rate is 49.05%, the 10-Day win rate is 50.00%, and the 30-Day win rate is 52.48%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the immediate aftermath of the plunge. The maximum return during the backtest period was 1.42%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that CPNG can recover from such a significant drop to achieve modest gains.

Coupang’s Earnings Crossroads: Position for Volatility as Sector Turbulence Deepens
Coupang’s 2.6% decline reflects a pivotal moment as earnings and sector dynamics collide. The stock’s bearish technicals, elevated IV, and institutional positioning suggest a high-impact earnings report is imminent. With Amazon’s 8.2% plunge amplifying sector jitters, investors should prepare for a sharp directional move. Prioritize options with high gamma and leverage (e.g., CPNG20250808P28) to capitalize on volatility. Watch for a breakdown below 28.61 or a surprise earnings beat to trigger a reversal. As the e-commerce sector redefines itself post-Prime Day, Coupang’s ability to exceed guidance will be the key driver—position now for either outcome.