Could A Foldable iPhone Really Be On The Horizon?
3min read Insiders have revealed that Apple is exploring the production of a foldable iPhone, which could be launched as early as 2026. In recent months, Apple has been in contact with Asian suppliers to discuss the manufacturing of related components.
Reports suggest that the phone will feature a "clamshell design", similar in appearance to Samsung's Galaxy Z Flip released in 2020. However, it's not uncommon for Apple to cancel projects during the R&D phase, so it's uncertain whether a folding phone will be released. But if it does come to market, it would be one of the biggest hardware design revolutions in iPhone history.
The insiders stated that since 2024, Apple has been developing an up-and-down folding smartphone, which, when unfolded, has a size similar to existing iPhones. In recent years, Apple has been applying for patents related to foldable products.
Recently, according to the list published by the United States Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO), Apple obtained a design patent for a folding iPhone, focusing on how to improve the durability of the folding screen. Apple also explored two schemes in the patent to enhance the durability of the folding screen: first, reduce the thickness of the folding and bending parts by making the glass thinner; and second, make other parts of the screen thicker.
Apple has also reportedly created an internal code name for the folding phone project - V68, indicating that the manufacturing process is underway. Apple plans to produce two foldable phones of different sizes. Sources said that the typical iPhone model usually takes about 24 months from start to finish, but the folding iPhone may take longer to complete.
The foldable smartphone equipped with AI features is expected to trigger demand for the iPhone manufacturer, which has been facing fierce competition from Samsung and Huawei in recent years. At the beginning of July, Samsung Electronics released its latest foldable smartphones worldwide—the Galaxy Z Fold6 and Galaxy Z Flip6. These two phones are the first to carry Galaxy AI technology, and Samsung hopes that this innovative feature will drive a significant increase in sales.
Analysts point out that with the introduction of AI functions, Apple is expected to enter the replacement cycle in 2025. According to a CIRP survey report, in the past year, as high as 71% of iPhone users' old devices have been used for more than two years, and this proportion was 63% in 2020.
The postponed replacement demand is expected to be gradually released in the second half of this year and next year. In addition, the formal introduction of Apple's AI functions may attract more users who want to use AI functions to replace old devices.
In terms of software, in June, Apple's first generative AI model, Apple Intelligence, officially made its debut, which can only be used on iPhone 15 Pro or higher models; in terms of appearance, Apple is expected to release a slim iPhone 17 Slim in 2025.
Foldable Phone Sales Surge
According to TrendForce data, foldable phone sales have been growing, with global shipments of 15.9 million units in 2023, a year-on-year increase of 25%, accounting for about 1.4% of the smartphone market.
The report shows that although Samsung's market share of folding screen models dropped from 80% in 2022 to below 70% in 2023, it still firmly holds the top spot in folding screen shipments. In 2023, Huawei's folding screen shipments have risen to 12%, while the market share of brands such as Xiaomi, OPPO, and vivo has always been below 10%.
In addition, according to IDC data, the global shipment of folding phones in 2020 was 1.9473 million units (penetration rate of 0.14%), and the shipment in 2023 increased to 18.1 million units (penetration rate of 2.14%); it is expected that the shipment in 2028 will reach 45.7 million units, and the penetration rate of folding phones is expected to reach 3.65%. The Chinese folding phone market continues to grow, with shipments in the first quarter of 2024 reaching 1.86 million units, a year-on-year increase of 83%, and the penetration rate of folding phones reaching 2.68%.
According to the latest report from market research agency Counterpoint Research, in the first quarter of 2024, the global foldable smartphone market grew by 49% year-on-year, setting a record for the highest growth rate in six quarters. Huawei surpassed Samsung, leading the market, to become the top global shipper for the quarter.
Specifically, the top ten shipments in the first quarter were Huawei, Samsung, Honor, and Motorola, with market shares of 35%, 23%, 12%, and 11%, respectively; in terms of year-on-year changes in shipments, Huawei grew by 257%, Samsung decreased by 42%, Honor grew by 460%, and Motorola grew by 1473%. Huawei's previously launched folding devices only included LTE devices, but in the first quarter of 2024, the proportion of Huawei's 5G folding screen devices soared to 84%.