Coty Stock Slides After TD Cowen Downgrade to 'Hold'

Coty Inc. (NYSE: COTY) shares are down in pre-open trade following a downgrade by TD Cowen to 'hold' from 'buy'. This move comes amidst a mixed earnings performance for Coty, with revenue growth of 10.15% in 2024 but earnings decreasing by -84.61%. The downgrade may reflect concerns about Coty's earnings trajectory, despite the company's solid Q1 2025 growth in prestige fragrances. Analysts' average rating for COTY stock remains 'buy', with a 12-month price target of $11.0, indicating potential upside despite the recent downgrade.

Coty's recent strategic decisions, such as the acquisition of Kylie Cosmetics, have played a significant role in the company's performance and the subsequent downgrade by TD Cowen. The acquisition, valued at $600 million, aimed to bolster Coty's color cosmetics segment and tap into the growing influencer-driven market. However, the integration of Kylie Cosmetics has been challenging, with slower-than-expected sales growth and increased expenses. This has led to a decline in Coty's overall financial performance, with revenue in 2024 increasing by only 10.15% year-over-year, and earnings decreasing by -84.61%. The downgrade by TD Cowen reflects these struggles, with the firm cutting its price target to $8.50 from $11.48, indicating a more cautious outlook on Coty's stock.



Coty's competitors' financial performances may also have influenced the analyst's decision to downgrade the stock. For instance, Estée Lauder's strong Q4 2024 results, with sales up 17% year-over-year, and L'Oréal's robust Q2 2024 performance, with sales up 11.9%, could be putting pressure on Coty to maintain similar growth rates. Additionally, LVMH's acquisition of Tiffany & Co. and Estée Lauder's acquisition of the majority stake in Have & Be Cosmetics indicate a consolidation trend in the industry, which could further intensify competition.

In conclusion, Coty's recent financial performance, strategic decisions, and the competitive landscape have contributed to TD Cowen's downgrade of the company's stock to 'hold'. While Coty's long-term outlook remains positive, with analysts forecasting a 47.26% increase in the stock price over the next year, investors should closely monitor the company's earnings trajectory and competitive position. As the beauty sector continues to evolve, Coty's ability to adapt and maintain growth momentum will be crucial in determining the stock's future performance.