The cost of wafer will rise, and the price of TSMC's wafer will increase by about 10% next year.

IT Home July 10th news, according to the investors Eric Jhonsa cited Morgan Stanley's client report, TSMC plans to raise the price of all types of customers' wafers in 2025, with the highest increase of about 10%.

According to the report, due to the strong demand for advanced processors in the fields of consumer electronics and high-end computing, TSMC intends to raise the overall price of wafers in 2025. The negotiations with AI and high-end computing customers (such as Nvidia) show that these customers can accept about 10% price increase, for example, the price of 4nm process wafers may rise from $18,000 to $20,000. Therefore, it is expected that the average selling price (ASP) of 4nm and 5nm process wafers used mainly by AMD and Nvidia will rise by 11%. This means that for some customers, the price of N4/N5 process wafers has risen about 25% cumulatively since the first quarter of 2021.

The report said that although it is challenging to raise the price for smartphone and consumer electronics customers (such as Apple), there are signs that they can accept a moderate increase. Morgan Stanley expects the average selling price of 3nm process wafers in 2025 to rise by 4%. Unlike advanced process, mature process such as 16nm is expected not to rise due to sufficient capacity. However, it is believed that the production cost of TSMC's N3 process wafers may be above $20,000 and will definitely rise further. Morgan Stanley believes that enterprises should be able to pass part of the additional cost to end users.

To make customers more willing to pay extra, Morgan Stanley's recent supply chain survey shows that TSMC implied that its leading process capacity may be short, unless customers "recognize the value of TSMC" to ensure capacity allocation.

In addition, Morgan Stanley analysts believe that advanced CoWoS packaging prices may rise 20% in the next two years.

According to IT Home's understanding, in 2022, TSMC raised the price of wafers by 10%, and added 5% in 2023. Looking ahead, it is expected that there will be a 5% overall increase in 2025 to help TSMC's gross margin rebound to 53%-54% in 2025.