Cosmos/Tether USDt Market Overview

• Cosmos/Tether USDt (ATOMUSDT) closed near session lows after a volatile 24-hour period.
• Price action suggests bearish momentum amid key support levels being tested.
• On-balance volume remains uneven, with high turnover during afternoon ET selloff.
• Volatility increased in the last 12 hours, with Bollinger Bands widening.
• RSI suggests oversold conditions may emerge as downward momentum continues.

Cosmos/Tether USDt (ATOMUSDT) opened at $4.438 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $4.465 and a low of $4.364 before closing at $4.377 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-06. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 525,798.57, with a notional turnover of $2,303,453.85.

Structure & Formations

Price formation indicates a bearish continuation, with a clear descending trendline developing from $4.465 to $4.364. A key support level has formed around $4.40–$4.41, where price rebounded twice. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared around $4.421 on the morning of 2025-09-06, confirming short-term bearish sentiment. A potential reversal may be observed near $4.364, the 24-hour low, where a doji formed at 10:15 ET, indicating indecision.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum suggests a continued downtrend, with the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart currently bearish, with price below both. The 50-period line on the daily chart also shows a downward bias, while the 100- and 200-period moving averages remain above current price levels, suggesting a potential for a consolidation phase or reversal in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative in the early afternoon of 2025-09-06, confirming bearish momentum. The histogram remains wide but is beginning to contract, suggesting potential exhaustion. RSI has fallen into oversold territory, hovering around 30–32, indicating a possible rebound could occur soon, though a break below $4.364 may delay that reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly during the last 12 hours, with Bollinger Bands widening. Price currently sits near the lower band, reinforcing the oversold condition. A contraction in band width could precede a reversal, but as long as price remains below the 20-period moving average, the bearish bias is likely to continue.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff from $4.45 to $4.38, particularly between 16:00–18:00 ET on 2025-09-05 and again in the early morning of 2025-09-06. Turnover spiked during these periods, confirming the bearish move. However, declining volume in the last 4 hours suggests weakening momentum, potentially opening the door for a near-term rebound.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the 24-hour swing from $4.465 to $4.364, price has tested the 78.6% retracement level at $4.39–$4.40. A bounce from this level would suggest a retest of the 61.8% level at $4.425, followed by the 50% retracement at $4.42. A breakdown below $4.364 could extend the move to $4.355, a 78.6% retracement of the recent bearish move.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could involve a mean-reversion approach using RSI and Bollinger Bands. For example, entering a long position when RSI falls below 30 and price touches the lower Bollinger Band, with a stop-loss placed below the last swing low and a take-profit at the 50% Fibonacci retracement level. A short position might be initiated when RSI exceeds 70 and price touches the upper Bollinger Band, with a stop above the last swing high. This approach would aim to capture momentum shifts in a volatile environment.