Cosmos/Tether Market Overview

• Price dipped from $4.45 to $4.11, signaling a bearish momentum shift on the 15-minute chart.
• A key support at $4.118 and resistance at $4.163 observed, with bearish engulfing patterns near recent highs.
• RSI hit oversold territory, while volume surged below $4.16, suggesting potential for a rebound.
• Bollinger Bands widened, confirming increased volatility amid the downward correction.
• Turnover spiked during the sharp drop, aligning with price movement and hinting at strong bearish pressure.

The Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) pair opened at $4.438 on 2025-09-21 12:00 ET, hit a high of $4.45, a low of $4.031, and closed at $4.124 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-22. Total volume over 24 hours was 1,153,186.37, with notional turnover reaching $4,939,779.09. The price action reflected a strong bearish trend, with a sharp drop occurring after a 15-minute OHLC swing below key support levels.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a clear bearish bias, with price breaking through a key support at $4.118 and confirming a downward trend. A bearish engulfing pattern formed on the candle closing at $4.118, which followed a prior bullish consolidation. Notably, a doji appeared at $4.154, indicating indecision in the market. A strong bearish flag pattern developed between $4.16 and $4.11, with volume increasing at the breakout point. The key resistance levels at $4.163 and $4.178 appear to have failed in holding buyers, while support at $4.118 may now be critical for further bounce chances.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have crossed below, signaling a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period averages show a strong downward slope, reinforcing the bearish bias. The price is currently below all three, suggesting further downside potential unless a strong bullish reversal emerges.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line during the early part of the price decline, indicating bearish momentum. The histogram showed a sharp divergence with price as volume increased during the drop. The RSI has fallen into oversold territory, reaching 28.7, which may suggest a short-term rebound is possible. However, the RSI remains within the 30–40 range, showing that bearish pressure still dominates.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have widened significantly during the drop, reflecting increased volatility. Price has moved well below the lower band for multiple candles, confirming the strength of the bearish move. A retest of the lower band at $4.116–$4.118 appears likely, and a failure to hold this level could signal further downward pressure toward $4.08, a Fibonacci 78.6% level of a prior swing high.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp decline from $4.247 to $4.146, aligning with the price movement and confirming bearish sentiment. The largest notional turnover occurred during the candle that closed at $4.146, with $191,559.68 in turnover. However, a divergence occurred near $4.16 where volume declined despite price continuing lower, suggesting a potential exhaustion in the bearish move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the swing high of $4.45 and low of $4.118, the key retracement levels include 38.2% at $4.29 and 61.8% at $4.20. The price has not yet approached these levels, but a potential bounce at $4.118 could lead to a test of these retracement levels. On the daily chart, a larger swing high at $4.45 may see a 78.6% retracement at $4.08 if the bearish trend continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy described focuses on a mean reversion approach, where trades are triggered based on RSI entering oversold territory and volume confirming the move. Using the current scenario, a potential trade setup may occur if RSI rises above 30 and volume surges on a rebound. Given the recent breakdown in structure and the confirmation of bearish momentum, a long position on a retest of $4.118 with a stop loss below $4.10 may be considered. However, this approach must be validated with historical data before deployment.