Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) Market Overview: Volatility and Momentum Signals Emerge

• Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) opened at $3.167, reached $3.176, and closed at $3.114 after a volatile 24-hour session.
• A significant selloff occurred between 21:15–21:30 ET as price dropped from $3.108 to $3.065 on high volume.
• RSI hit oversold territory (<30) by 03:30 ET, suggesting potential for a short-term bounce.
• Volume spiked at 21:15 ET (172,879.94) and again at 02:30 ET (34,799.83), indicating key decision points.
• Bollinger Bands showed a contraction earlier in the day but expanded as volatility increased after 21:00 ET.

The Cosmos/Tether (ATOMUSDT) pair opened at $3.167 on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET and closed at $3.114 on 2025-10-23 at the same time. During the 24-hour window, it traded as high as $3.176 and as low as $3.028. Total volume reached 1,167,245.93, while notional turnover amounted to approximately $3.64 million. The session was marked by a sharp selloff in the evening hours, followed by a partial recovery in the early morning.

On the 15-minute chart, key support levels appear to be forming around $3.10–$3.12, coinciding with a cluster of bullish reversal patterns like a morning star and a bullish engulfing candle at the 03:30–04:00 ET time frame. Resistance levels are visible at $3.14 and $3.16, with price previously failing to hold above these levels on multiple occasions. The 20-period moving average crossed below the 50-period line, indicating a potential bearish bias, while the daily 200-period MA remains above current levels, suggesting a longer-term bearish trend.

The RSI indicator showed a bearish divergence early in the session, with price making higher highs but RSI declining. This suggested a weakening of the uptrend and foreshadowed the sharp pullback. As the session progressed, RSI dropped into oversold territory, which may signal a potential short-term rebound. The MACD line crossed below the signal line around 21:15 ET, reinforcing the bearish momentum, with the histogram shrinking slightly in the final hours as volume waned.

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction before 21:00 ET, indicating a low-volatility environment, but rapidly expanded as the selloff unfolded. Price spent the majority of the session below the lower band, indicating heightened bearish pressure. Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent swing high ($3.176) align with key support levels at $3.12 (38.2%) and $3.10 (61.8%). The price currently appears to be consolidating near the 61.8% level, which could serve as a critical area for near-term direction.

Backtest Hypothesis

A viable backtesting hypothesis could involve entering long positions when RSI falls below 30, as observed in this session, and exiting when price reaches either the 61.8% Fibonacci level or the upper Bollinger Band—whichever comes first. This approach mirrors the bearish pressure seen from 21:15–03:30 ET, where price dropped to $3.065 before staging a modest recovery. However, the backtester requires a dedicated price feed to execute this logic, as an internal error highlighted the absence of the price variable. One solution is to explicitly pass a separate close price series to the backtester, while an alternative is to use an event-based approximation that sidesteps the dependency but offers less granular control. Both approaches are valid, depending on the desired level of precision.