Cosan Outlook: Bearish Momentum and Mixed Analyst Signals

Market Snapshot

Cosan (CSAN.N) is under pressure with a sharp price decline of -19.22% recently, backed by bearish technical signals and conflicting analyst ratings. Investors should approach with caution.

News Highlights

Recent news points to mixed signals for energy and commodities: Colombia’s oil and gas investment is expected to jump 8% in 2025, boosting regional E&P activity. This could benefit Cosan’s operations in the region. President Tinubu’s new executive order in Nigeria aims to reduce costs for upstream oil and gas operators, offering potential policy-driven support for Cosan’s operations in Africa. OPEC+ is preparing to discuss a potential larger-than-expected output hike for July, which could depress global oil prices and weigh on Cosan’s margins.

Analyst Views & Fundamentals

Analysts are divided, with two major institutions offering starkly different historical track records: Goldman Sachs (rating: Neutral) has a poor historical winning rate of 0.0% and an average return of 15.07% over past predictions. HSBC (rating: Neutral) fairs better with a 50.0% win rate but has historically posted an average return of -10.71%.

The simple average rating from analysts is 3.00, while the performance-weighted rating is a much lower 0.82. This lack of consensus reflects uncertainty in the stock’s direction.

From a fundamental perspective, Cosan’s internal diagnostic score stands at 5.87, indicating moderate fundamentals. Here are some key figures:

Revenue-MV: 2.00 (internal score: 3) Profit-MV: 0.47 (internal score: 2) Net Income/Revenue: -13.11% (internal score: 2) Gross Profit Margin (GPM): 0.68% (internal score: 1) Net Profit Margin (NPM): -7.82% (internal score: 2) Gross Profit/Operating Assets (GPOA): 0.08 (internal score: 3) Operating Cash Flow/Operating Assets (CFOA): 0.08 (internal score: 1)

The mixed signals in both analyst ratings and fundamentals highlight the stock’s uncertain performance relative to its price trend.

Money-Flow Trends

The fund-flow score for Cosan is 7.6 (good), indicating positive capital inflows from both large and small investors.

Small investor inflow ratio: 53.11% Medium investor inflow ratio: 50.16% Large investor inflow ratio: 47.63% Extra-large investor inflow ratio: 50.87%

While large investors are showing some contrarian activity, the overall trend is positive, with inflows across all categories. This suggests buying interest amid the technical bearishness and declining price trend.

Key Technical Signals

Cosan’s technical score is 3.2, with a clear bearish bias, as three negative indicators dominate:

MACD Death Cross: internal diagnostic score of 3.79 – signals bearish momentum and bear confirmation. Long Lower Shadow: 3.58 – indicates a weak bullish reversal attempt. Williams %R Oversold: 2.23 – suggests over-sold conditions without a strong price bounce.

Recent chart patterns include repeated WR Oversold signals from Dec 9 to Dec 15, 2025, alongside a MACD Death Cross on Dec 9, highlighting ongoing bearish momentum and a weak trend.

Conclusion

With a mixed bag of fundamentals, diverging analyst ratings, and clearly bearish technical indicators, Cosan is currently in a weak position. While money flows show some buying interest, the technical trend remains weak. Investors are advised to consider waiting for a clearer reversal signal or a strong earnings update to gauge the company's direction. For now, caution is warranted.