Corporate Bitcoin Ownership and Index Exclusion Risks: A Structural Threat to Treasury Models and Liquidity

The corporate adoption of Bitcoin as a treasury asset has evolved from a niche experiment to a structural shift in global finance. As of 2025, over 100 publicly traded companies hold approximately 1.01 million BTC-valued at $112.9 billion-positioning Bitcoin as a strategic reserve asset alongside cash, gold, and real estate according to MDPI research. However, this trend now faces a critical inflection point: the potential exclusion of Bitcoin treasury companies from major equity indices like MSCI, S&P, and FTSE. This exclusion, driven by evolving index criteria, threatens to destabilize the liquidity and capital-raising mechanisms underpinning these firms, creating a cascading risk for both corporate treasuries and the broader Bitcoin ecosystem.

The Rise of Bitcoin as Corporate Treasury

Companies like Strategy Inc. (formerly MicroStrategy), MARA Holdings, and Twenty One Capital have redefined corporate finance by allocating significant portions of their balance sheets to Bitcoin. Strategy Inc., the largest corporate holder with 639,835 BTC, has championed Bitcoin as a hedge against inflation and a superior store of value according to Natixis analysis. Similarly, MARA Holdings and Bullish have combined Bitcoin mining with treasury accumulation, leveraging scale to reduce entry costs according to MDPI research. These firms operate under a model where Bitcoin's appreciation directly boosts equity value, creating a self-reinforcing cycle of capital raising and asset accumulation.

However, this model relies heavily on index inclusion. For instance, Strategy Inc.'s stock has historically attracted passive inflows from ETFs and index-tracking funds due to its inclusion in MSCI indices according to CoinDesk analysis. JPMorgan estimates that a removal from MSCI could trigger $2.8 billion in passive outflows, with risks escalating to $8.8 billion if other indices follow suit according to Yahoo Finance. This dependency on index-based liquidity exposes these firms to structural vulnerabilities as index providers reassess their criteria.

Index Exclusion: A Regulatory and Market Crossroads

Index providers are tightening criteria to exclude companies where digital assets constitute 50% or more of total assets. MSCI's proposed rule, set for implementation in February 2026, argues that such firms resemble investment funds rather than operating businesses, distorting index stability according to LinkedIn analysis. S&P has already excluded Strategy Inc. from its indices, citing non-compliance with inclusion requirements according to BloomingBit. While FTSE has not explicitly outlined Bitcoin-specific criteria, its focus on liquidity screening for digital assets suggests a similar trajectory according to LSEG.

The rationale for exclusion is twofold:
1. Volatility Concerns: Bitcoin's price swings introduce atypical risk profiles, challenging traditional risk models like VaR according to MDPI research.
2. Benchmark Neutrality: Critics argue that index providers are politicizing benchmarks by targeting Bitcoin treasury strategies, undermining market neutrality according to Bitcoin Magazine.

Yet, the practical impact is clear. Exclusion would force index-tracking funds to divest shares of affected companies, creating downward pressure on stock prices and liquidity. For firms like Strategy Inc., which raised $2.8 billion in equity to fund Bitcoin purchases in 2024 according to Natixis analysis, this could trigger a liquidity crisis, compounding existing challenges in equity or debt capital raising according to Yahoo Finance.

Broader Market Implications

The exclusion of Bitcoin treasury companies from indices would reshape the Bitcoin market structure. Currently, these firms act as proxy assets for Bitcoin exposure, with their stock prices loosely correlated to BTC's performance according to MEXC analysis. However, divergences are already evident: a prominent Bitcoin holder recently saw its shares plummet despite holding BTC with substantial unrealized gains according to MEXC analysis. This disconnect highlights the fragility of equities tied to Bitcoin exposure, as derivative hedges and market sentiment amplify volatility according to MEXC analysis.

If indices exclude these firms, capital may shift toward institutionalized Bitcoin products like ETFs or stablecoin-linked assets, as encouraged by the GENIUS Act of 2025 according to Bitwise analysis. While this could stabilize the broader market, it would also erode the role of corporate treasuries as a vehicle for Bitcoin adoption, redirecting capital flows and altering the competitive landscape.

Conclusion: A Structural Reassessment

The potential exclusion of Bitcoin treasury companies from major indices represents a structural threat to their business models. These firms have built their value propositions on the premise that Bitcoin's appreciation would drive equity growth, but index-driven liquidity risks now challenge this foundation. As MSCI, S&P, and FTSE finalize their criteria, investors must weigh the implications for corporate treasuries, market volatility, and the broader Bitcoin ecosystem. The coming months will test whether these firms can adapt to a post-index-inclusion reality-or if their exclusion will mark the end of an era for corporate Bitcoin ownership.