Corpay's Q1 2025: Discrepancies in Growth Outlook for Lodging, Vehicle, and Corporate Payments

Lodging segment growth expectations, US vehicle payments growth outlook, corporate payments growth expectations, and lodging stabilization expectations are the key contradictions discussed in Corpay's latest 2025Q1 earnings call.



Strong Financial Performance:
- Corpay reported revenue of $1.6 billion for Q1 2025, up 8%, and cash EPS of $451 million, up 10%.
- The results were in line with expectations, with organic revenue growth of 9%.
- This performance was driven by strong trends in both Vehicle Payments and Corporate Payments, with the latter showing 19% organic revenue growth.

Impact of Macro Factors:
- The company maintained its full-year 2025 guidance, despite macroeconomic uncertainties, as forward curves for FX, fuel, and SOFR are neutral.
- The April revenue flash aligned with the forecast, indicating stability in the revenue trend.
- Corpay anticipates a slight increase in full-year guidance, reflecting the Gringo acquisition, but offset by a $6 million spread shortfall in Q1.

Cross-Border Business Growth:
- The Cross-Border business showed a 51% increase in sales and 18% organic revenue growth for Q1.
- This growth was driven by FX rate volatility and tariff policy changes, although some softening was observed in March.
- The business is expected to rebound with the announced tariff pause, potentially impacting revenue positively.

Mastercard Partnership and Avid Investment:
- A strategic partnership with Mastercard valued the Cross-Border business unit at over $10 billion.
- Corpay made a $500 million minority investment in Avid, with a call option for future acquisition, aiming to strengthen its position in corporate payments.
- These moves aim to significantly expand Corpay's corporate payments segment and scale its offerings.