Corn Takes Center Stage: The 2025 Planting Season is Here!

Despite the immense uncertainty in agriculture due to the escalating trade war, farmers do not have the luxury of delaying planting decisions – or planting itself. Now that spring has arrived, they will soon head to the fields to put this year’s crop in the ground.

The 2025 Prospective Plantings report surveyed nearly 74,000 farmers between February 27 and March 18 on what they intend to plant this year. As expected, due to market conditions and a large dip in acreage last year, farmers are intending to plant significantly more corn, moving away from cotton, wheat and soybeans.

Corn. Corn. Corn.

The main takeaway from the Prospective Plantings report is that we’re planting corn – a lot of it. Farmers intend to plant 95.3 million acres of corn in 2025, a 5.2% increase of 4.7 million acres compared to corn planted last year. This figure came in above most, but not all, trade estimates and 1.3 million acres above USDA’s projection at February’s Agriculture Outlook Forum. If realized, planted corn acres would be the third highest since 1944 and the highest since 2013.

Corn is taking acres from many crops, with the largest swings in total acres away from cotton and soybeans. If realized, at 30.8%, corn would be at its highest-ever percentage of principal planted crops since at least 1993, when the total principal crops planted metric was first available from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service.



Swings in Planted Acreage

On an acreage basis, soybeans (4.7 million acres) and cotton (1.3 million acres) had the largest acre declines from 2024 planted acres. On a percentage basis, cotton is projected to have the biggest decrease at -11.8% to only 9.9 million acres, the lowest planted acres in over a decade. Cotton has been facing very poor profitability for several years now and is among the crops with the highest percentage of production exported, making it very vulnerable to retaliatory tariffs. All forms of wheat also have projected decreases in acres including other spring wheat (-5.7%, -605,000 acres), durum (-2.4%, -50,000 acres), and winter wheat (-0.2%, -75,000 acres).

Besides corn, sunflowers have the largest projected increase in acres, recovering to 1.1 million acres with an additional 351,700 acres (48.8%) compared to last year, when sunflower production was historically low. In addition to corn at 5.2%, peanuts (8.3%, 149,000 acres) and chickpeas (11.8%, 59,000 acres) have the next largest increases in intended acreage.

The shift towards corn is driven by several factors, including strong demand for corn, both domestically and internationally, and favorable market prices. Analysts predict a rise in corn acres, with trade expectations of 2025 corn plantings hitting 94.361 million acres, up 4.2% from 2024. This trend is reflected in the market's response to the USDA's Prospective Plantings report, which is likely to spark market movement and could drive price changes. For instance, corn futures have shown notable swings, with the last five planting reports averaging 12-cent gains. In 2023, prices jumped 16 cents due to lower-than-expected corn acreage, indicating the market's sensitivity to planting intentions.

The impact of this trend on the agricultural sector's economic stability and farmers' financial health is multifaceted. On one hand, the increased demand for corn could lead to higher prices, benefiting farmers who plant corn. However, the shift away from soybeans and wheat could have negative consequences for those who rely on these crops. For example, soybean growers intend to plant 83.5 million acres in 2025, down 4% from last year, which could lead to lower soybean prices and reduced income for soybean farmers.

Moreover, the trade war between the United States and China has influenced global agricultural markets, with China imposing retaliatory tariffs on US agricultural products. This has raised concerns about food security and market stability, which could further impact the financial health of farmers. For instance, the US share of soybeans in China’s imports has decreased from 30% to 22% in recent years, posing challenges for US farmers and potentially reshaping global agricultural trade dynamics.

In conclusion, the significant shift in planting intentions towards corn is driven by market expectations of higher prices and the anticipated rise in corn acreage. While this trend could benefit corn farmers, it may also have negative consequences for soybean and wheat farmers. The ongoing trade war and its impact on global agricultural markets add another layer of complexity to the financial health of farmers in the coming years.