CoreWeave's Volatile Slide: What's Behind the 0.66% Drop?

Summary
• CoreWeave (CRWV) trades at $116.37, down 0.66% from its $117.20 open
• RSI hits 70.2 (overbought) amid $112.13–$117.75 intraday range
• Options volume surges on 9/19 expirations, with $115 put/call pairs dominating

CoreWeave’s midday selloff has ignited a flurry of options activity as traders grapple with divergent technical signals. While the stock remains 65% above its 52-week low, the RSI’s overbought reading and MACD divergence suggest caution. With Amazon (AMZN) leading the Data Processing sector higher, the disconnect between CRWV’s fundamentals and technicals demands closer scrutiny.

Technical Divergence and Overbought RSI Signal Caution
The 0.66% intraday decline stems from a classic overbought RSI reversal pattern. At 70.2, the RSI has breached the 70 threshold for the first time this week, while the MACD (-4.36) remains below its signal line (-6.96), creating bearish divergence. Bollinger Bands show the price is trading near the upper band (113.62), suggesting exhaustion in the short-term bullish trend. The 2.6% turnover rate—triple the 30-day average—confirms liquidity is shifting from buyers to sellers as the stock tests its 30-day moving average (104.30).

Options Playbook: Leveraging Volatility in a Sideways CRWV
• RSI: 70.2 (overbought)
• MACD: -4.36 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: 113.62 (upper) / 97.02 (middle)
• 30D MA: 104.30 (below price)

Key levels to watch: 115.00 (psychological support) and 108.00 (30D support range). The RSI’s overbought condition suggests a near-term pullback, but the 70.20 RSI and 2.6% turnover rate indicate volatility isn’t fading. Two options stand out for directional plays:

• CRWV20250919P115 (Put):
- Strike: $115 | Expiry: 9/19 | IV: 75.31% (high)
- Delta: -0.450 | Theta: -0.0446 (moderate decay)
- Gamma: 0.0289 (responsive to price swings)
- Turnover: $459,915 (high liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% downside: $3.63 (max profit if price drops to $109.55)
- This put offers 32% leverage to downside moves while IV remains elevated, ideal for capitalizing on a potential break below $115.

• CRWV20250919C115 (Call):
- Strike: $115 | Expiry: 9/19 | IV: 76.70% (high)
- Delta: 0.5497 (moderate directional bias)
- Theta: -0.5655 (aggressive time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0284 (strong sensitivity to price)
- Turnover: $575,702 (liquidity leader)
- Payoff at 5% downside: $0.00 (out-of-money), but offers 19.3% leverage if price rebounds above $115.

Aggressive bulls may consider CRWV20250919C115 into a bounce above $115.00, while bears should monitor CRWV20250919P115 for a breakdown below $112.00.

Backtest CoreWeave Stock Performance
I ran into an internal error while trying to extract the exact “-0.7 % intraday-low” signals from the raw OHLC file (the calculation engine threw an unexpected variable error).Before I retry with a workaround, let me confirm two points so I deliver the analysis you really want:1. Event definition • Your wording is “-0.7 % intraday plunge.” • Would you like me to define this as: a) The day’s low ≤ previous-day close × 0.993 (pure intraday test), or b) A simpler daily close-to-close drop of ≥ 0.7 % (no intraday low reference)?2. Threshold size • 0.7 % is quite small (most stocks move that much almost every day). • Did you perhaps mean 7 % (-0.07) instead? A bigger shock tends to give more informative post-event statistics.Once you confirm the event rule (1) and threshold (2), I’ll regenerate the event-date file and finish the back-test.

Act Now: Position for Volatility Amid Technical Divergence
The RSI’s overbought condition and MACD divergence suggest a near-term correction is likely, but elevated IV in the options market indicates volatility isn’t dissipating. With Amazon (AMZN) up 0.26% as the sector leader, CRWV’s divergence from broader trends warrants caution. Investors should prioritize the $115.00 pivot point—break below it to trigger the put play, or hold for a rebound to retest the $117.75 intraday high. Watch for RSI normalization below 60 or a breakdown of the 30-day MA (104.30) as definitive signals.