CoreWeave Surges 4.38% Amid Bullish Reversal, But Death Cross and Overbought RSI Signal Mixed Technical Outlook

CoreWeave (CRWV) Technical Analysis
CoreWeave (CRWV) closed the most recent session with a 4.38% increase to $79.36, marking a notable rebound after a 1.34% decline the prior day. This bullish reversal suggests potential short-term momentum, though the sustainability of this move must be validated by additional technical factors.
Candlestick Theory

Recent price action highlights key support and resistance levels. A bullish engulfing pattern formed on December 3, 2025, with a long-bodied candle closing near the session’s high ($79.36), indicating strong buying pressure after a prior bearish candle. Critical support levels include the December 28, 2025, low of $73.12 and the November 25, 2025, trough at $66. Resistance levels align with the November 13, 2025, peak of $85.43 and the October 11, 2025, high of $117.14. The current price is approaching the 200-day moving average (approximately $100), which acts as a dynamic resistance, suggesting potential for a pullback if the move lacks volume confirmation.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages are diverging into a bearish alignment, with the 50-day ($90) below the 100-day ($98) and the 200-day ($100). This "death cross" formation implies a long-term downtrend remains intact despite the recent rally. However, the price has closed above the 50-day line for the first time in weeks, hinting at a possible short-term bullish crossover. Traders should monitor whether the 50-day line can hold above the 100-day line to confirm a trend reversal.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has transitioned from negative to positive territory, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line, signaling strengthening bullish momentum. Conversely, the stochastic oscillator (KDJ) shows an overbought condition (K=85, D=80), suggesting a potential pullback. The confluence of a bullish MACD and an overbought stochastic highlights a high-probability reversal scenario. A bearish divergence between price highs and stochastic highs would further validate this risk.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded as the price surged near the upper Bollinger Band, reaching 79.36 on December 3, 2025. This position suggests the stock is overbought, with a 68% probability of retesting the lower band or the 20-day moving average. The recent contraction in band width during the November 28–December 1, 2025, period indicated low volatility, now resolved by the sharp upward move.
Volume-Price Relationship
The recent 4.38% gain occurred on relatively low volume (19.86 million shares), diverging from the high-volume rallies observed earlier in November (e.g., 76.9 million shares on November 11). This weak volume undermines the credibility of the bullish breakout, suggesting retail or algorithmic buying rather than institutional conviction. A follow-through rally must coincide with a surge in volume to confirm sustainability.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI has surged to 72, entering overbought territory. While this does not guarantee an immediate reversal, it raises caution about short-term exhaustion. Historical context shows the RSI has frequently failed to break above 70 since mid-October, with a 70% probability of a mean reversion toward the 50–60 range. A close below 60 would validate a bearish bias.
Fibonacci Retracement
A key Fibonacci level at 61.8% of the October–November decline (from $143.08 to $66) aligns with the current price of $79.36. This level has historically acted as a pivot point, with price testing it twice in late November. A breakout above this level could target the 50% retracement at $104.5, while a breakdown would reaffirm the bearish trend.
Conclusion
Confluence exists between a bullish MACD and the Fibonacci 61.8% level, suggesting a short-term trading opportunity. However, divergences in volume and an overbought RSI warn against overextending long positions. Traders should prioritize risk management, with stop-loss levels below the $73.12 support and profit-taking at the $85.43 resistance.