CoreWeave Slips 9% After Earnings Beat — Lockup Expiration and Soaring Capex Set Stage for Wild Trader Showdown

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CoreWeave (CRWV) posted another blockbuster top-line beat in its second quarter as the AI infrastructure provider rode surging compute demand, but guidance and spending levels have traders hitting the brakes. The stock, which has been on a rollercoaster since its March IPO, was down about 9% in premarket trading Wednesday after management delivered softer-than-hoped margin guidance and reiterated hefty capex plans. While the long-term AI growth story remains intact—with a swelling backlog and new hyperscaler deals—valuation concerns, elevated debt, and Friday’s IPO lockup expiration have injected a note of caution into what has otherwise been a momentum name for active traders.

Revenue came in at $1.21 billion, easily topping the $1.08 billion consensus, and up more than 200% year-over-year. Adjusted operating income was $199.8 million versus expectations of $159.4 million, while adjusted EBITDA rose 201% to $753.2 million for a 62% margin. EPS losses widened to $0.26 on an adjusted basis, missing the Street’s -$0.21 forecast, with GAAP losses driven in part by $145 million in stock-based compensation. Backlog climbed to $30.1 billion, bolstered by a $4 billion OpenAI expansion and new hyperscaler business that is expected to feed into Q3 results. Analysts believe the customer mix likely includes Microsoft, Meta, and Google.

Guidance was a mixed bag. For Q3, revenue is projected at $1.26–$1.30 billion versus a $1.25 billion consensus, while full-year 2025 revenue was lifted to $5.15–$5.35 billion from $4.9–$5.1 billion, comfortably above the Street’s $5.05 billion estimate. However, profitability guidance fell short, with management citing conservatism and ongoing elevated spending. Operating income forecasts were reiterated, suggesting a back-half ramp in expenses tied to data center buildouts and Nvidia Blackwell deployments in Q4. Interest expense remains high following a recent $2 billion debt raise (upsized by $500 million), though management noted a lower weighted average cost of capital. FY capex was reaffirmed at $21.5 billion, with the company targeting 900MW of capacity by year-end, up from 470MW today.

Strategically, CoreWeave continues to expand its footprint through both organic growth and acquisitions. The most notable deal on the table is its all-stock $9 billion bid for Core Scientific (CORZ), a key infrastructure partner. While the acquisition could accelerate capacity expansion without adding debt, the deal’s completion is in question given CRWV’s stock pullback since the announcement, which has reduced the transaction’s value. Two Seas Capital, holding about 6.3% of CORZ, has already voiced opposition unless terms are revised. The outcome could hinge on CRWV’s share performance, which faces a near-term test with the lockup expiration after Thursday’s close.

In Q2, CoreWeave also completed its $1.4 billion acquisition of Weights & Biases, adding AI model monitoring and evaluation capabilities to its platform. New products launched include Mission Control for cluster management, W&B Inference for AI model access, and Weave Online Evaluations for real-time agent performance tracking. Management highlighted being first to deploy Nvidia GB200 NVL72 systems at scale and delivering the largest-ever MLPerf Training v5.0 benchmark submission—34x larger and 4.5x more performant than any competing GB200 submission.

Traders will also note that backlog additions outside of previously announced deals were a modest $200 million this quarter, which some analysts flagged as less impressive than the headline revenue beat. Operating margin shrank to 2% from 20% a year earlier, largely due to higher compensation costs, while debt now totals $11.1 billion. The company continues to operate in a supply-constrained environment, with demand for GPU-as-a-Service outstripping available power capacity. Management reiterated plans to bring a 250MW greenfield data center in New Jersey online in 2026 through a joint venture.

For active market participants, the setup is tricky. On one hand, CRWV has delivered strong revenue growth, a rising backlog, and clear leadership in AI infrastructure, which could make today’s drop attractive for a bounce trade—especially in a market environment still driven by “animal spirits” in the AI theme. On the other hand, Friday’s lockup expiration looms large, as it will free insiders and early investors to sell, potentially creating additional supply into the market. Given the stock’s high valuation, heavy capital requirements, and the uncertainty around the Core Scientific acquisition, short-term trading opportunities may be more compelling than long-term holds at current levels.

In the near term, volatility should remain elevated. If shares can hold key technical support after the lockup and Q3 execution meets or exceeds expectations, traders could see momentum return quickly. But until then, expect the name to remain a battleground stock—one where timing entries and exits may matter as much as the fundamentals driving the AI buildout story.

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