CoreWeave Rebounds 6% From Key Support As Technicals Hint Recovery

CoreWeave (CRWV) advanced 6.06% in the latest session, closing at 96.93 on substantial volume of 31.15M shares. This rebound emerges from a significant 39% correction from its August 12 peak of 148.75, warranting comprehensive technical assessment to evaluate trend sustainability and key inflection points.
Candlestick Theory
The price action reveals critical support near the 90-92 level, where multiple daily lows clustered between August 25-26. This zone catalyzed the 6.06% bullish candle on August 27, which closed near its session high (97.5) after testing lows at 92.65. Immediate resistance materializes at the 98-100 psychological barrier, coinciding with August 22's high (98.6) and the breakdown level from August 18. A sustained close above 100 would signal strength, while failure below 90 invalidates the nascent recovery.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day MA (approximately 121.50 based on recent closes) decisively crossed below the 100-day MA (near 133) in mid-August, confirming a bearish intermediate trend. Current price trades 20% below both averages, reflecting persistent downward pressure. However, the gap between shorter-term MAs (e.g., 10-day) and price has narrowed, hinting at potential mean reversion. Reclaiming the 50-day MA remains critical for trend reversal confirmation.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD registers a bullish convergence as the histogram bars begin diminishing while prices established the 90-92 support base. This aligns with KDJ oscillators: The %K line (21) recently crossed above %D (18) from deeply oversold territory (<20). While both indicators suggest waning downward momentum, sustained improvement requires MACD's signal line crossover and KDJ holding above 30. Notably, the August 13–15 bearish impulse lacked corresponding MACD lows, creating a positive divergence.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility expanded dramatically during the August 12–23 selloff, with price breaching the lower band multiple times. The bands have since contracted 15%, and price now trades near the middle band (20-day SMA ≈ 97.50). This compression typically precedes directional resolution. A close above the middle band targeting the 103-105 upper band appears probable if bullish momentum persists.
Volume-Price Relationship
Recent bullish signals include the August 27 rally occurring on 94% higher volume than the prior session – a robust accumulation signal. The August 22 rebound attempt failed despite high volume (34M shares), but subsequent support tests at 90-92 occurred on progressively lower volume (16-18M), suggesting selling exhaustion. Sustained advances now require volume expansion above the 20-day average (≈28M shares).
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI rebounded sharply from 26 (August 26) to 43 – its highest reading since August 15. This exit from oversold territory (historically a reliable buy signal in this stock) warrants monitoring. However, RSI remains below its mid-point (50), indicating bearish momentum dominance still exists. A climb above 50 would strengthen recovery prospects.
Fibonacci Retracement
Applying Fibonacci to the 148.75 (August 12 high) – 90.32 (August 26 low) decline reveals immediate resistance at the 23.6% level (104.11). This aligns with key horizontal resistance at 103-105 and the 50-day MA zone. Confluent resistance then emerges at 38.2% (112.64) near the August 15 breakdown level. The shallow 23.6% retracement target and volume-supported rebound from lows suggest upward continuation toward 104 appears feasible short-term.
Confluence & Divergence Observations
Convergence exists at the 90-92 support, bolstered by candlestick reversals, volume contraction, and RSI divergence. Similarly, resistance converges at 103-105 (Fibonacci 23.6%, prior swing highs, and Bollinger mid-band). The primary divergence lies between RSI/KDJ improvements and price remaining below key MAs – suggesting technical repair remains incomplete. CoreWeave’s recovery probability improves above 104 with volume confirmation but deteriorates below 90.