CoreWeave Q2 Preview: Can Nvidia’s AI Cloud Powerhouse Smash the $1.1B Revenue Mark?

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CoreWeave (CRWV) will deliver fiscal Q2 results after the close, marking its second earnings report since going public in March. The AI infrastructure specialist — best known for renting access to Nvidia GPUs to hyperscalers, AI developers, and enterprise customers — sits at the center of a global race for compute capacity. Investors will be looking for evidence that demand momentum remains intact amid industry-wide capacity shortages, while also weighing timing volatility in large customer deals. Key metrics include total revenue, bookings growth, adjusted operating income, and margin trends, with particular attention to how Q2 results position the company for its ambitious 2025 capacity expansion. Commentary on major contracts with Microsoft, OpenAI, and other top clients will be closely monitored, as will any updates on the company’s multi-year AI cloud growth strategy.

CoreWeave heads into its second quarter report with high expectations as guidance reflects the surging demand for AI infrastructure. Management expects Q2 revenue between $1.06 billion and $1.1 billion, with adjusted operating income projected at $140 million to $170 million as the company accelerates investments to meet customer needs. Interest expense is forecast at $260 million to $300 million, while CapEx is set to surge to $3 billion to $3.5 billion in the quarter, underscoring its aggressive buildout strategy. For full-year 2025, CoreWeave is targeting revenue of $4.9 billion to $5.1 billion, adjusted operating income of $800 million to $830 million, and CapEx of $20 billion to $23 billion—levels driven by the landmark OpenAI contract, a recent $4 billion expansion with a large AI enterprise, and the integration of Weights & Biases.

Analyst expectations reflect a split view on the near-term trajectory. JPMorgan anticipates lumpiness in deal timing but remains constructive on CoreWeave’s long-term pipeline, citing a robust bookings backdrop. Deutsche Bank is forecasting another top-line beat, supported by strong AI demand and incremental contribution from the OpenAI partnership, though it warns margins could ease quarter-over-quarter due to upfront costs ahead of capacity ramp-up. Citi recently upgraded the stock to Buy, pointing to sustained Azure growth at Microsoft — CoreWeave’s largest customer — and capacity constraints that could persist into FY26. In contrast, HSBC initiated coverage with a Reduce rating and a $32 target, citing concerns about commoditization in GPU cloud markets, heavy customer concentration, high CAPEX, and negative free cash flow trends.

Management signaled expectations for accelerating revenue in 2H25 as new capacity comes online. Investors will look for updated commentary on 2025’s planned ;2x increase in deployed power and whether backlog growth supports further upward revisions to full-year outlook. Given the scale of capital investment — including a recently closed $2.6 billion secured debt facility — CoreWeave’s forward guidance on CapEx, liquidity, and financing plans will be crucial for assessing both growth potential and balance sheet risk.

Beyond the earnings print, two near-term catalysts are drawing attention. First is the pending all-stock acquisition of Core Scientific (CORZ), which would add 150–200MW of high-quality data center capacity but has faced pushback from some CORZ shareholders over deal terms. The integration path, cost synergies, and CAPEX requirements — which may run higher than previous retrofits — will be important factors in evaluating the deal’s strategic fit. Second is the August 15 lock-up expiration, which could release significant share supply into the market. While Citi argues CoreWeave’s fundamentals can absorb the impact, some investors remain wary of potential selling pressure, especially given Nvidia’s early-stage equity stake.

CoreWeave’s deep ties to Nvidia remain a core part of the investment story. Nvidia has provided favorable GPU allocations, a 7% equity stake, and collaborative support, positioning CoreWeave to scale quickly in a supply-constrained market. The company’s relationships extend to Microsoft, OpenAI, Meta, Cohere, and IBM, all of which rely on its infrastructure for high-performance AI workloads. As hyperscalers continue to push back their expectations for demand-capacity equilibrium — Microsoft now targets late 2025 — CoreWeave appears positioned to benefit from ongoing infrastructure scarcity.

A brief Q1 recap underscores the pace of growth. CoreWeave reported record revenue of $982 million and adjusted operating income of $163 million, up 420% and 550% year-on-year, respectively. The quarter was highlighted by an $11.9 billion contract with OpenAI, a $4 billion expansion with a major AI enterprise, and the acquisition of Weights & Biases, a leading AI developer platform with more than 1,400 customers. The company also deployed Nvidia’s GB200 Grace Blackwell systems at scale, further cementing its reputation as a performance leader in AI cloud infrastructure.

Market performance ahead of earnings reflects the volatility that has become a hallmark of the CRWV trade. After opening at $39 in March, shares surged to $187 in June before pulling back to the $100 level, then rebounding to $143 into the print. Analyst price targets range from HSBC’s $32 to Argus’s $200, highlighting the wide dispersion of expectations tied to execution, competitive positioning, and capital intensity. For high-risk-tolerant investors, Q2 could serve as a key checkpoint for CoreWeave’s ability to translate surging AI demand into sustained, profitable growth.

In the hours after results, the market’s focus will likely be on whether CoreWeave delivers upside in both revenue and operating income, confirms the durability of major contracts, and provides visibility into 2H25 ramps. Any updates on the Core Scientific deal structure, lock-up dynamics, and CapEx commitments could shape short-term sentiment just as much as the headline numbers. With AI infrastructure capacity still scarce and hyperscaler demand unrelenting, Q2 has the potential to either reinforce CoreWeave’s standing as a premier AI cloud provider — or underscore the execution risks that come with scaling at breakneck speed.

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