CoreWeave (CRWV) Surges 4.9% Amid Earnings Anticipation and Lockup Expiry Jitters

Summary
• CoreWeave (CRWV) surges 4.9% intraday to $146.63, hitting a 52-week high of $147.20
• Intraday range spans $130.43 to $147.20, with $18.4M turnover
• Earnings report due after hours and lockup expiry loom as catalysts
• Sector leader Microsoft (MSFT) gains 1.4% amid AI infrastructure demand

CoreWeave’s 4.9% intraday rally reflects heightened volatility ahead of its second-quarter earnings report and an impending IPO lockup expiry. The stock’s sharp move from a 130.43 low to a 147.20 high underscores investor anticipation for earnings results and liquidity dynamics. With Microsoft’s 1.4% gain in IT Services, the sector remains anchored by AI-driven infrastructure demand.

Earnings Timelines and Lockup Expiry Drive Volatility
CoreWeave’s 4.9% intraday surge is fueled by dual catalysts: its Q2 earnings report due after hours and an IPO lockup expiry set for August 15. The lockup expiration, which frees 83% of Class A shares, historically triggers selling pressure but is offset by bullish analyst calls citing strong fundamentals. Recent news highlights the $11.9B OpenAI contract execution and $4B expansion deal, which have boosted backlog to $29B. However, rising interest costs ($260–300M Q2) and capital expenditures ($3–3.5B Q2) remain headwinds, creating a volatile tug-of-war between growth optimism and financial risk.

IT Services Sector Gains Momentum as Microsoft Leads
The IT Services sector, led by Microsoft’s 1.4% intraday gain, reflects sustained demand for AI infrastructure. CoreWeave’s 4.9% move outperforms the sector, driven by its hypergrowth AI cloud model and strategic debt financing. While Microsoft’s Azure and Google Cloud post steady growth, CoreWeave’s 420% Q1 revenue jump and $9B debt-funded expansion position it as a high-risk, high-reward play within the sector.

Options and Technicals: Navigating Earnings Volatility
• MACD: -3.8 (bullish divergence), RSI: 55.8 (neutral), 30D MA: 130.35 (below price)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at 145.49 (upper band), suggesting overbought conditions

Top Options Contracts:
• CRWV20250822C145
- Strike: $145, IV: 109.83%, Delta: 0.571, Theta: -0.779, Gamma: 0.014, Turnover: 850,118
- IV (high volatility), Delta (moderate sensitivity), Theta (rapid time decay), Gamma (price sensitivity)
- This call option balances leverage (11.96% ratio) and liquidity (850K turnover), ideal for a 5% upside scenario (target $154.01).
• CRWV20250822C140
- Strike: $140, IV: 110.28%, Delta: 0.642, Theta: -0.787, Gamma: 0.013, Turnover: 814,957
- IV (high volatility), Delta (strong directional bias), Theta (aggressive decay), Gamma (moderate sensitivity)
- With 9.81% leverage and 814K turnover, this contract offers a 5% upside payoff of $9.01, aligning with earnings-driven momentum.

Aggressive bulls should consider CRWV20250822C145 into a bounce above $145, while core positioners may use CRWV20250822C140 for a lower-cost entry. Watch for a breakdown below $139.78 (previous close) to trigger short-side opportunities.

Backtest CoreWeave Stock Performance
The backtest of CRWV's performance following a 5% intraday increase shows promising results. The strategy achieved an excess return of 143.63% and a CAGR of 2791.52%, significantly outperforming the benchmark return of 14.40%. Although the strategy had a maximum drawdown of 0.00% and a Sharpe ratio of 19.96, it also exhibited high volatility, with a 139.87% drawdown. These findings suggest that while the strategy carried substantial risk, it delivered substantial returns, making it suitable for traders looking to capitalize on significant market movements.

Earnings and Lockup: The Next 72 Hours Define CRWV’s Trajectory
CoreWeave’s 4.9% rally hinges on its ability to deliver a strong Q2 earnings beat and manage lockup expiry selling pressure. With Microsoft (MSFT) up 1.4% and AI infrastructure demand surging, the stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a high-volatility window. Investors should prioritize CRWV20250822C145 for a 5% upside scenario and monitor the $139.78 support level. A breakdown below this threshold could trigger a pullback, while a sustained close above $147.20 would validate the bullish case. Act now: Position for earnings-driven momentum or hedge with short-dated calls ahead of August 15 lockup expiry.