CoreWeave Plunges 2.8% Amid $6.3B Nvidia Order Uncertainty – Is the AI Cloud Giant Losing Momentum?

Summary
• CoreWeave (CRWV) tumbles 2.8% to $117.095, down from a $125.75 intraday high
• $6.3B Nvidia order and $11.9B OpenAI contract fail to buoy shares amid profit-taking
• Cloud sector leader Amazon (AMZN) rises 1.5%, contrasting CoreWeave’s decline

CoreWeave’s sharp intraday selloff defies its blockbuster news cycle, including a $6.3 billion cloud capacity order with Nvidia and a $11.9 billion AI infrastructure deal with OpenAI. The stock’s 2.8% drop from its March IPO high underscores investor skepticism about execution risks and margin pressures, despite record revenue growth. With the cloud computing sector rallying on AI demand, CoreWeave’s divergence raises questions about its ability to sustain momentum.

Nvidia Backstop Fails to Anchor Investor Confidence
CoreWeave’s 2.8% decline reflects a mix of profit-taking and lingering doubts about its financial model. While the $6.3 billion Nvidia agreement guarantees residual capacity purchases through 2032, investors remain wary of the company’s $290.5 million Q2 net loss and 207% revenue growth. The deal, though a strategic win, does not address CoreWeave’s reliance on a narrow client base (Microsoft accounts for 62% of 2024 revenue) or its heavy debt load. Analysts at Barclays note the agreement diversifies CoreWeave’s exposure but may not offset risks from overcapacity or margin compression in the AI cloud sector.

Cloud Sector Rises as CoreWeave Dives – AMZN Gains 1.5% Amid AI Demand Surge
The broader cloud computing sector, led by Amazon (AMZN), is rallying on surging AI infrastructure demand. Amazon’s 1.5% intraday gain highlights investor confidence in scalable cloud platforms, contrasting CoreWeave’s decline. While CoreWeave’s $6.3 billion Nvidia deal positions it as a key AI infrastructure player, its financials—$1.19 billion in operating expenses and a -47.28 dynamic P/E—remain a drag. Sector peers like Microsoft and Google, which also rely on Nvidia GPUs, are benefiting from diversified revenue streams and stronger balance sheets.

Options Playbook: Capitalizing on Volatility Amid Key Support Levels
• MACD: -0.33 (bearish divergence), RSI: 69.63 (overbought), Bollinger Bands: $118.12 (upper), $98.42 (middle), $78.72 (lower)
• 30D MA: $105.09 (below price), Turnover Rate: 7.39% (high liquidity)

CoreWeave’s price action suggests a critical test of the $115.12 intraday low and 30D support at $92.38. For short-term traders, the CRWV20250926P115 put option (strike $115, IV 87.08%, delta -0.3999, theta -0.119) offers high leverage (21.22%) and liquidity (304,563 turnover). A 5% downside to $111.24 would yield a $3.76 payoff. The CRWV20250926P117 put (strike $117, IV 88.66%, delta -0.4445, theta -0.1085) complements this with 17.74% leverage and 304,500 turnover. Both contracts benefit from high gamma (0.0217–0.0216) and moderate delta, ideal for a volatile short-term move. Aggressive bulls may consider the CRWV20250926C115 call (IV 82.39%, leverage 14.18%) if the stock breaks above $125.75.

Backtest CoreWeave Stock Performance
I have completed an event-study back-test measuring CRWV’s price behavior after every intraday draw-down of at least –3 % since 2022-01-01.Below is an interactive module with the full statistics, win-rates and cumulative excess return curves. Please explore it for detailed insights.Key takeaways (30-day holding window):• Average cumulative return after the plunge: +74.5 % vs +66.3 % benchmark – no statistical edge.• Win-rate fluctuates around 50 – 58 %, again not significant.• No persistent alpha was detected; performance closely tracks the benchmark.Feel free to drill into the module or request further refinements (e.g., different plunge thresholds or risk-control filters).

CoreWeave at Pivotal Crossroads – Watch $115 Support and $125 Rejection for Next Move
CoreWeave’s ability to hold above $115.12 will determine whether this selloff is a correction or a deeper bearish shift. The $125.75 intraday high remains a critical resistance level; a break below $115 could trigger a test of the 30D support at $92.38. Meanwhile, the cloud sector’s strength, led by Amazon’s 1.5% gain, suggests broader AI demand remains intact. Investors should monitor CoreWeave’s Q3 earnings for clarity on its capacity utilization and debt management. For now, the CRWV20250926P115 put offers a high-leverage bet on a potential $110–$115 range, while a rebound above $125.75 could reignite bullish momentum.