CoreWeave Plummets 19%: AI Infrastructure Giant Faces Profitability Storm as Lock-Up Looms

Summary
• CoreWeave (CRWV) tumbles 19.26% intraday to $119.3, its lowest since March IPO.
• Q2 loss widens to $0.60/share vs. $0.45 expected, with operating expenses surging 276% to $1.19B.
• Lock-up expiration Thursday adds volatility risk as $8B debt burden and supply constraints weigh.

CoreWeave’s sharp decline reflects investor unease over profitability challenges despite record $1.21B revenue. The stock’s 200-day low of $33.515 looms as a critical support level, while the 52-week high of $187 underscores the magnitude of the selloff. Analysts are split between long-term optimism and near-term caution as the company navigates rapid scaling and debt management.

Wider Losses and Lock-Up Expiry Spark Flight to Safety
CoreWeave’s 19.26% intraday drop stems from a combination of widening Q2 losses, surging operating expenses, and looming lock-up expiration. The company reported a $0.60/share loss, exceeding estimates by 33%, as costs ballooned 276% year-over-year. Despite revenue topping $1.21B (207% YoY growth), analysts highlighted structural issues: debt coverage concerns, supply bottlenecks, and delayed capex. The lock-up expiry Thursday exacerbates uncertainty, as insiders and IPO participants may offload shares. Stifel and Morgan Stanley analysts noted near-term risks from potential dilution and execution delays, undermining confidence in the stock’s ability to sustain its 200% post-IPO rally.

Bearish Options and ETFs: Capitalizing on Volatility and Technical Weakness
• MACD: -1.30 (bearish divergence), RSI: 62.31 (neutral), 30D MA: $129.88 (price below).
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $119.3 (near lower band at $94.71), signaling oversold conditions.

CoreWeave’s technicals and fundamentals align for a bearish setup. The stock trades below its 30D MA and near the lower Bollinger Band, with RSI hovering near neutral. The 2025-08-22 options chain offers two high-conviction puts:

• CRWV20250822P115:
- Strike: $115, IV: 144.14% (high volatility), Leverage: 13.02%, Delta: -0.394, Theta: -0.306, Turnover: $1.24M.
- IV reflects elevated volatility expectations; Leverage amplifies returns on a 5% downside. A 5% drop to $114.10 would yield a put payoff of $0.90/share, translating to ~7.9% gains on the contract.

• CRWV20250822P120:
- Strike: $120, IV: 150.46% (extreme volatility), Leverage: 9.72%, Delta: -0.461, Theta: -0.300, Turnover: $4.56M.
- IV and Turnover confirm liquidity and volatility; Delta suggests moderate sensitivity to price moves. A 5% drop to $114.10 would yield a put payoff of $5.90/share, translating to ~49% gains on the contract.

Aggressive bears should prioritize CRWV20250822P120 for its high IV and turnover, while conservative traders may target CRWV20250822P115 for a safer entry. Both contracts benefit from the stock’s proximity to key support levels and the lock-up expiry’s potential to drive further downside.

Backtest CoreWeave Stock Performance
The 3-day win rate for CRWV after an intraday plunge of at least -19% is 64.71%, the 10-day win rate is 61.76%, and the 30-day win rate is 52.94%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 49.56%, which occurred on day 44 after the plunge. These results suggest that CRWV has a higher probability of positive returns in the short term following a significant intraday decline.

Act Now: Lock-Up Expiry and Debt Risks Signal Short-Term Downtrend
CoreWeave’s 19.26% drop reflects a confluence of widening losses, surging costs, and lock-up expiry risks. The stock’s technicals—below 30D MA and near Bollinger Band—reinforce bearish momentum. Investors should monitor the $115–$120 support cluster and Microsoft’s -1.75% drag on the sector. Aggressive short-term traders may target CRWV20250822P120 for high-leverage exposure, while longer-term holders should wait for a rebound above $130.30 (30D resistance) before re-entering. With $8B in debt and supply bottlenecks unresolved, CoreWeave’s near-term path remains perilous.