CoreWeave vs. Nebius: Which AI Infrastructure Stock Offers a Stronger Long-Term Growth Catalyst?

In the race to dominate the AI cloud infrastructure market, CoreWeave (NASDAQ: CRWV) and Nebius Group (NASDAQ: NBIS) stand as two of the most dynamic and strategically aggressive contenders. As the global demand for AI computing surges—projected to generate $650 billion in annual revenue by 2030—investors are scrutinizing these firms through the lenses of capital efficiency, scalability, and profitability potential. This analysis dives into their contrasting financial strategies, expansion trajectories, and long-term viability, offering a roadmap for investors navigating this high-stakes sector.

Capital Efficiency: Debt-Driven Ambition vs. Conservative Prudence

CoreWeave's financial model is a study in aggressive leverage. The company reported $981.6 million in Q1 2025 revenue, a 420% year-over-year jump, but this growth comes at a cost. With $18.8 billion in liabilities, including $8.7 billion in debt, CoreWeave's capital expenditures (capex) for 2025 are projected at $20–23 billion, funded by a mix of debt, secured contracts, and recent senior note issuances. While its $25.9 billion backlog, including an $11.2 billion OpenAI contract, ensures revenue visibility, the company's $264 million Q1 interest expense (expected to remain at $260–300 million in Q2) raises questions about its ability to service debt amid rising interest rates.

Nebius, in contrast, operates with a far leaner balance sheet. With $1.44 billion in cash and a current ratio of 18.0, the company has raised $1.7 billion (including a $1 billion convertible note in June 2025) to fund its $2 billion capex plan for 2025. Notably, Nebius is debt-free, relying on equity and convertible debt to fuel expansion. While its Q1 adjusted EBITDA loss of $62.6 million reflects the cost of rapid growth, its path to adjusted EBITDA breakeven in H2 2025 and long-term 20–30% EBITDA margins suggests a more disciplined approach to capital efficiency.

Scalability: Vertical Integration vs. Global Diversification

CoreWeave's scalability hinges on its vertical integration strategy. The acquisition of Core Scientific in 2025 added 1.3 gigawatts of power infrastructure, slashing lease liabilities by $10 billion annually and enabling cost-effective expansion. The company plans to double its data center count from 14 to 28 by 2024, with 10 new sites in 2025. Its $3.5 billion European data center project and $9 billion in funding raised underscore its focus on U.S.-centric dominance. However, 77% of its 2024 revenue came from its top two clients, including Microsoft, creating concentration risk.

Nebius, meanwhile, is betting on geographic and product diversification. With data centers in Finland, France, Iceland, Israel, and the U.S., and plans to expand into Asia, the company is positioning itself as a global player. Its $2 billion capex plan includes new sites in New Jersey, Kansas City, and the Middle East, while its AI Studio platform (60,000 users) and a 28% stake in ClickHouse (a $6 billion analytics firm) diversify its revenue streams. Nebius's partnership with NVIDIA—launching Blackwell superchips in Europe—also gives it a first-mover advantage in key markets.

Profitability Potential: A Tale of Two Timelines

CoreWeave remains unprofitable, with a net loss that doubled YoY, and its path to profitability is clouded by $20–23 billion in 2025 capex. While its $26 billion revenue backlog and $7 billion 15-year lease agreement with Applied Digital provide visibility, the company's $21 billion in 2025 funding and $3.75 billion in new debt suggest it's prioritizing growth over margins. Investors must weigh whether its $19–23 billion market cap (trading at a lower P/S ratio than Nebius) justifies the risk of prolonged unprofitability.

Nebius, though also unprofitable, is closer to breakeven. Its $310 million ARR (up 684% YoY) and $500–700 million 2025 revenue target indicate disciplined growth. The company's $1 billion convertible note and $700 million NVIDIA-led investment provide liquidity to fund expansion while targeting adjusted EBITDA positivity by late 2025. With a $9 billion market cap and $1.44 billion in cash, Nebius offers a more conservative risk profile, albeit with smaller growth potential compared to CoreWeave.

Investment Thesis: Balancing Risk and Reward

For investors with a high-risk tolerance, CoreWeave presents a compelling case. Its $26 billion backlog, NVIDIA partnership, and acquisition of Core Scientific position it to dominate the U.S. AI infrastructure market. However, its $8.7 billion debt load and $260–300 million quarterly interest expenses demand a prolonged period of growth before profitability.

Nebius appeals to those seeking a more balanced approach. Its debt-free status, global expansion, and first-mover advantage with NVIDIA in Europe make it a strong contender for long-term value. While its smaller revenue base and $500–700 million 2025 revenue target lag behind CoreWeave's scale, its $1.44 billion cash reserves and $188 million in debt offer a buffer against market volatility.

Final Verdict

The choice between CoreWeave and Nebius hinges on investor priorities. CoreWeave is the high-octane bet—a leveraged, high-growth play with massive potential but significant downside risk. Nebius, meanwhile, offers a safer, more sustainable path to profitability, albeit with a smaller growth runway. In the AI infrastructure race, both companies are positioned to win—but only one may emerge as the capital-efficient, scalable, and profitable long-term leader.