Is CoreWeave or Nebius the Better AI Infrastructure Play for 2026? A Valuation and Scalability Analysis

The AI infrastructure sector has emerged as one of the most dynamic investment arenas in 2025, with companies like CoreWeave and Nebius Group leading the charge. Both firms are racing to meet surging demand for GPU-powered compute resources, but their divergent strategies-CoreWeave's aggressive debt-fueled expansion versus Nebius' capital-raising approach-raise critical questions about valuation efficiency and scalability. As the market approaches 2026, investors must weigh which company offers a more compelling risk-reward profile.

Growth Trajectories: Explosive Numbers, Divergent Paths

CoreWeave and Nebius have both posted staggering revenue growth, but their trajectories reflect fundamentally different business models. CoreWeave's revenue surged from $395.4 million in 2024 to $1.2 billion in Q2 2025, with full-year 2025 sales projected between $5.2 billion and $5.4 billion. This growth is underpinned by long-term contracts with OpenAI and Toyota Motor, which provide recurring revenue streams. Meanwhile, Nebius reported a 625% year-over-year revenue jump to $105.1 million in Q2 2025, driven by a multiyear Microsoft deal. Analysts project Nebius to achieve a 233% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2024 to 2027, reaching $4.34 billion in revenue, while CoreWeave's CAGR of 112% is expected to push its revenue to $18.1 billion during the same period according to financial analysts.

However, growth alone is not the sole metric. CoreWeave's forward-looking metrics-such as its projected $13.0 billion in adjusted EBITDA by 2027-suggest a path to profitability that outpaces Nebius' expected positive EBITDA in 2026 as reported in financial analysis. This highlights a key distinction: CoreWeave is scaling faster while building a margin buffer, whereas Nebius remains heavily invested in infrastructure with limited near-term cash flow.

Debt Strategies: Risk vs. Reward

Both companies have taken on significant debt to fund expansion, but their approaches differ in magnitude and structure. CoreWeave's total debt now exceeds $10 billion, a figure that reflects its rapid data center proliferation-from 15 in 2024 to 33 across the U.S. and Europe by 2025 according to financial reports. This debt load, while daunting, is justified by the company's ability to secure high-margin contracts and its focus on GPU-intensive workloads, which command premium pricing.

Nebius, by contrast, has raised nearly $4.2 billion through public and private offerings as of September 2025, including convertible senior notes to fund a $2 billion capex plan for 2025 as announced in its latest update. Its debt-to-equity strategy appears more conservative, supported by a $1.68 billion cash balance and $6 billion in strategic assets according to Q2 2025 financial data. However, Nebius' debt has grown from a mere $6.1 million in 2024 to nearly $1 billion by year-end 2024, signaling a rapid shift toward capital intensity as noted in financial analysis.

The critical question is whether these debt burdens are sustainable. CoreWeave's leverage is higher, but its forward price-to-sales (P/S) ratio of 4 times 2027 sales is significantly lower than Nebius' 7 times according to market analysis. This suggests the market is pricing in greater efficiency for CoreWeave, despite its higher debt load.

Valuation Efficiency: The CoreWeave Edge

Valuation metrics often reveal the most actionable insights. CoreWeave's lower P/S ratio-4x versus 7x-makes it appear more reasonably valued, even as it carries a larger debt burden according to financial analysts. This discrepancy can be attributed to CoreWeave's demonstrated scalability: its data center footprint expansion and ability to secure high-margin contracts (e.g., with Toyota and OpenAI) provide a clearer path to revenue diversification.

Nebius' higher valuation reflects optimism about its "full stack" AI infrastructure model and partnerships with Microsoft and Meta as detailed in Q3 2025 results. However, its reliance on long-term contracts (e.g., a $17.4 billion Microsoft deal and a $3 billion Meta agreement) introduces execution risk. If these contracts fail to materialize as expected, Nebius' valuation could face downward pressure. CoreWeave, meanwhile, has already secured recurring revenue from multiple clients, reducing its dependence on a single partnership.

Scalability: Data Centers as a Strategic Asset

Scalability is the linchpin of long-term success in AI infrastructure. CoreWeave's expansion from 15 to 33 data centers in just one year demonstrates its ability to rapidly deploy capacity where demand exists according to financial reports. This agility is critical in a sector where latency and proximity to clients matter. Nebius, while investing heavily in a $2 billion capex plan for 2025, has yet to match CoreWeave's geographic reach as reported in financial updates.

Moreover, CoreWeave's focus on GPU-intensive workloads aligns with the current demand for AI training, whereas Nebius' broader "full stack" approach may take longer to monetize. The former's specialization allows it to capture higher margins in a niche market, while the latter's diversification could pay off if the industry shifts toward integrated solutions.

Conclusion: CoreWeave as the Near-Term Bet

While Nebius' explosive revenue growth and strategic partnerships are impressive, CoreWeave's lower valuation, proven scalability, and stronger margin potential make it the more compelling play for 2026. Its forward P/S ratio of 4x suggests the market is undervaluing its ability to convert debt into sustainable cash flow, particularly as AI demand continues to outpace supply. Investors seeking a balance between growth and efficiency should prioritize CoreWeave, even as they acknowledge the risks inherent in its aggressive debt strategy.

Nebius, meanwhile, remains a high-conviction long-term bet. Its capital-raising flexibility and deep partnerships with tech giants like Microsoft and Meta position it to dominate in a more mature AI infrastructure market. But for 2026, when execution and valuation efficiency matter most, CoreWeave's metrics tilt the scales in its favor.