CoreWeave (CRWV) Surges 6.19% Amid Acquisition Drama and Sector Volatility – What’s Fueling the Move?

Summary
• CoreWeave (CRWV) rockets 6.19% to $128.57, trading near its 52-week high of $187
• Shareholder Two Seas Capital opposes $9B Core Scientific acquisition, citing undervaluation risks
• Sector peers like Microsoft (MSFT) inch up 0.17%, while CRWV’s 30-day volatility outpaces peers

CoreWeave’s dramatic intraday rally has ignited speculation about its $9 billion acquisition of Core Scientific, now under fire from its largest shareholder. With the stock trading near its 52-week high and a 5.57% turnover rate, the move reflects a mix of strategic optimism and regulatory uncertainty. The Software - Infrastructure sector remains polarized, as CRWV’s surge contrasts with Microsoft’s muted gains.

Acquisition Uncertainty and Shareholder Rebellion Drive CRWV Volatility
CoreWeave’s 6.19% surge stems from a perfect storm of strategic optimism and shareholder dissent. The $9 billion all-stock acquisition of Core Scientific, aimed at expanding AI infrastructure, has drawn sharp criticism from Two Seas Capital, Core Scientific’s largest active shareholder. The firm argues the deal undervalues Core Scientific’s assets and exposes shareholders to CoreWeave’s volatile stock price. This opposition has created a dual narrative: bulls see a strategic AI infrastructure play, while bears fear a poorly structured merger. The stock’s intraday range of $121.70–$130.98 reflects this tension, with volume spiking to 15.18 million shares as traders bet on resolution.

Software - Infrastructure Sector Mixed as Microsoft Trails CRWV’s Momentum
The Software - Infrastructure sector remains fragmented, with CoreWeave’s 6.19% gain starkly contrasting Microsoft’s 0.17% rise. While CRWV’s rally is driven by acquisition speculation, Microsoft’s muted performance reflects broader market caution about AI-driven capex. Sector peers like CrowdStrike (CRWD) and Palo Alto (PANW) trade lower, underscoring CRWV’s unique exposure to AI infrastructure and regulatory risk. The sector’s 21% CAGR in data center capex through 2029 suggests long-term tailwinds, but CRWV’s near-term volatility hinges on shareholder approval of its Core Scientific deal.

Options Playbook: Leveraging CRWV’s Volatility with High-Gamma Contracts
• RSI: 48.7 (neutral), 30D MA: $131.98 (above price), MACD: -7.71 (bearish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: $96.59–$143.69 (current price near 20% of upper band)

CRWV’s technicals suggest a short-term consolidation phase after its sharp rally. The stock is trading near its 30-day moving average ($131.98) but faces resistance at $130.98 (intraday high). With RSI at 48.7 and MACD signaling bearish divergence, traders should watch for a pullback to the $125–$127 range before resuming bullish momentum. Two options stand out for their high gamma and liquidity:

• CRWV20250815C125 (Call, $125 strike, 8/15 expiry):
- Implied Volatility: 120.81% (high)
- LVR: 11.76% (moderate leverage)
- Delta: 0.597 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.9037 (rapid time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0168 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 12.12M (liquid)
This contract offers asymmetric upside if CRWV breaks above $130.98, with high gamma amplifying gains in a volatile environment.

• CRWV20250815C130 (Call, $130 strike, 8/15 expiry):
- Implied Volatility: 125.34% (very high)
- LVR: 14.51% (aggressive leverage)
- Delta: 0.513 (moderate sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.8957 (rapid decay)
- Gamma: 0.0167 (high sensitivity)
- Turnover: 4.99M (liquid)
Ideal for aggressive bulls expecting a post-approval rally. A 5% upside to $135.00 would yield a 45.16% payoff on this contract.

Payoff Estimation:
- CRWV20250815C125: $128.57 → $135.00 (5% up) → $6.43 payoff
- CRWV20250815C130: $128.57 → $135.00 → $4.93 payoff

Action Insight: Aggressive bulls should target CRWV20250815C125 into a break above $130.98. Conservative traders may short the $130 put (CRWV20250815P130) if the stock fails to hold $127.

Backtest CoreWeave Stock Performance
The backtest of CRWV's performance following a 6% intraday increase shows favorable results, with the 3-Day win rate at 68.57%, the 10-Day win rate at 71.43%, and the 30-Day win rate at 71.43%. The maximum return during the backtest period was 58.85% over 37 days, indicating that CRWV tends to have positive short-to-medium-term gains following a significant intraday surge.

CRWV at Inflection Point: Watch Shareholder Vote and $130.98 Breakout
CoreWeave’s 6.19% surge hinges on two critical catalysts: the outcome of Core Scientific’s shareholder vote and the stock’s ability to break above $130.98. With Two Seas Capital opposing the $9B deal, the acquisition’s approval remains uncertain, creating a volatile trading environment. Technically, the stock’s 30-day MA at $131.98 and Bollinger Band proximity suggest a potential consolidation phase. Investors should monitor Microsoft’s 0.17% gain as a sector benchmark while prioritizing CRWV’s $125–$127 support zone. Immediate action: Buy CRWV20250815C125 if $130.98 is breached; short CRWV20250815P130 if the stock dips below $127.