CoreWeave's 5.39% Drop Sparks Bearish Signals as Candlestick and RSI Highlight $69.50 Support Test

Candlestick Theory
CoreWeave’s recent candlestick pattern reveals a long bearish candle with a 5.39% decline, indicating strong selling pressure. Key support levels emerge at $70.73 (December 19 low) and $69.50 (December 16 close), while resistance is likely clustered around $83–84.83 (December 19 high and December 22 close). The price has tested the $70.73 support twice, suggesting a potential bounce or breakdown. A bearish engulfing pattern at $80.26 (December 23 close) reinforces the short-term bearish bias, though a bullish reversal at $70.73 could signal a countertrend rally.

Moving Average Theory
The 50-day moving average (approx. $78–80) and 200-day MA (approx. $90–92) indicate a medium-term downtrend, with the current price ($80.26) below both. The 100-day MA (~$85) acts as a critical resistance level. Confluence between the 100-day MA and Fibonacci 61.8% retracement level (~$84.83) suggests this zone may cap further gains. A break below the 50-day MA would confirm a steeper decline toward $69.50, while a close above $84.83 could reinvigorate the 200-day MA as a potential support.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
The MACD histogram has contracted, indicating waning momentum, with the MACD line below the signal line—a bearish divergence. The KDJ stochastic oscillator shows the stock in oversold territory (K=25, D=30), suggesting a potential near-term rebound. However, a bearish crossover in the KDJ (K < D) last week implies caution. While the RSI (~28) aligns with oversold conditions, a failure to rally above $80.26 may signal a deeper correction.
Bollinger Bands
Volatility has expanded following the recent 5.39% drop, with the price near the lower Bollinger Band ($78.70). The 20-day standard deviation suggests a potential rebound toward the mid-band ($81.50), though a break below the lower band could target $69.50. The bands’ contraction in early December preceded this sharp decline, highlighting a period of consolidation before the breakout.
Volume-Price Relationship
The recent sell-off coincided with elevated volume (~22.1 million shares), validating the bearish move. However, volume has declined in subsequent sessions, suggesting possible exhaustion. A surge in volume on a rebound above $80.26 would strengthen bullish case, while sustained low volume below $70.73 could indicate capitulation.

RSI Calculation
With a 14-period RSI of ~28, CoreWeave is in oversold territory. The average gain (last 14 days) is 0.5%, while the average loss is 1.5%, confirming the bearish bias. A move above 30 may trigger short-covering, but RSI divergence (price lower lows with higher RSI) is absent, limiting its predictive power.
Fibonacci Retracement
Key Fibonacci levels from the November 10 ($110.30) to November 20 ($69.21) swing show the 61.8% retracement at $84.83 and 50% at $89.75. The price has stalled at the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential test of $70.73 as the next target. A break above $89.75 would negate the bearish case, but current momentum favors the lower retracement levels.
Concluding Synthesis
Confluence between candlestick bearish patterns, oversold RSI, and Fibonacci/MA resistance at $84.83 suggests a high probability of continued weakness toward $69.50. Divergences in KDJ and RSI hint at a possible near-term bounce, but volume trends and MACD bearishness imply caution. Traders may watch for a breakdown below $70.73 (confirmation of a new downtrend) or a reversal at this level (bullish signal). The 200-day MA remains a critical long-term reference, with its current position (~$90) far from immediate relevance.