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Corebridge Financial's Q1 Earnings: A Delicate Balance of Strength and Struggle

Harrison BrooksMonday, May 5, 2025 5:10 pm ET

3min read

Corebridge Financial (NYSE: CRBG) delivered a mixed set of results for the first quarter of 2025, showcasing both resilience in profitability and challenges in revenue generation. The company reported Non-GAAP EPS of $1.16, narrowly beating estimates by $0.03, while revenue of $4.74 billion fell $540 million short of expectations. This uneven performance highlights the complexities facing the retirement and insurance sector, where Corebridge must navigate interest-rate risks, competitive pressures, and evolving consumer demand.

Key Takeaways from Q1 2025 Results

Profitability Held Steady: The EPS beat, driven by cost discipline and margin management, aligns with Corebridge’s focus on shareholder returns. The company maintained its $2 billion share repurchase authorization and a dividend yield of 7.1%, appealing to income-focused investors.
Revenue Miss Signals Headwinds: The $540 million shortfall in revenue underscores challenges in its core segments, particularly the Life Insurance division, which analysts like Citi have flagged as a potential weak spot. Weak demand for annuities and declining fee-based income likely contributed to the miss.
Structural Strength Remains: Corebridge’s diversified business model—spanning Individual Retirement, Group Retirement, and Institutional Markets—supports its $400 billion in assets under management, a key competitive advantage.

Revenue: A Miss, but Context Matters

The $4.74 billion revenue figure fell short of the $5.28 billion consensus, marking a 9% year-over-year decline from Q1 2024’s $5.25 billion. This drop contrasts with the company’s 2024 full-year performance, which saw 5% revenue growth. The miss was driven by:
- Weakness in the Life Insurance Segment: Citi analysts had warned of potential underperformance here, citing declining sales of variable annuities and pricing pressures.
- Economic Uncertainty: Rising interest rates and cautious consumer spending may have dampened demand for long-term financial products.

EPS: A Narrow Win, but a Win

The Non-GAAP EPS of $1.16 beat estimates by $0.03, reflecting operational efficiency and cost controls. This result aligns with Corebridge’s 2025 EPS guidance of $4.92, which, while lower than 2024’s $4.83, still signals stability. Notably, the company’s APTOI (Adjusted Pre-Tax Operating Income) rose 7% year-over-year in Q4 2024, suggesting underlying strength in its core businesses.

Analyst Reactions: Caution Amid Optimism

Analysts remain divided:
- Piper Sandler reiterated an Overweight rating, citing Corebridge’s $2 billion buyback program and reduced ownership stakes from parent company AIG.
- Citi maintained a Neutral rating, emphasizing concerns about the Life Insurance segment’s growth prospects and AIG’s continued share sales.
- Zacks Investment Research noted a Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) due to downward revisions in estimates, though Corebridge has beaten EPS expectations in four straight quarters.

Technical Outlook: A Stock at a Crossroads

Technical indicators suggest short-term volatility but mixed signals for long-term investors:
- Near-Term Support: The stock closed at $30.66 on May 2, 2025, with immediate support at $29.93 and $29.80. A breach below $28.86 could trigger further declines.
- Resistance Levels: The $32.02 resistance level (seen in February 2025) remains a key hurdle for sustained gains.
- 3-Month Forecast: Analysts predict a 16.27% decline, with a 90% probability of trading between $19.91 and $25.67 by August 2025.

Conclusion: A Stock for Patient Investors

Corebridge Financial’s Q1 results reflect a company balancing strength in profitability with revenue headwinds. While the EPS beat and shareholder-friendly policies (buybacks, dividends) provide near-term support, the revenue miss and ongoing risks—such as interest-rate sensitivity and competitive pressures—demand caution.

Investors should weigh:
- Upside Potential: A dividend yield of 7.1% and a low P/E ratio of 9.44 make CRBG a value play. Positive guidance on the Life Insurance segment or a rebound in annuity sales could reinvigorate growth.
- Downside Risks: The Zacks Rank #4 (Sell) and analysts’ lowered 2025 EPS estimates (now $4.92 vs. $5.40 in prior guidance) suggest lingering skepticism.

In the short term, Corebridge’s stock may remain volatile, but its diversified business model and $400 billion asset base position it to weather near-term challenges. For investors with a 3-5 year horizon, the combination of income generation and potential valuation recovery makes CRBG worth monitoring—provided they stay alert to sector-specific risks.

As the saying goes, “Rome wasn’t built in a day,” and Corebridge’s path to sustained growth may require patience. The company’s Q1 results are a reminder that in financial services, resilience in profits can coexist with revenue struggles—a balance investors must carefully weigh before deciding to hold, buy, or sell.

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