Core Scientific (CORZ): Riding the AI Infrastructure Wave – Key Levels to Watch Before the Next Move

The AI infrastructure race is heating up, and Core Scientific (CORZ) finds itself at the center of a potential game-changer. Rumors of a buyout by CoreWeave, a major AI computing provider, have sent its shares soaring. While the deal remains unconfirmed, the stock's meteoric rise—up 80% year-to-date—hints at a market betting big on its AI pivot. But with volatility and overbought conditions looming, traders must navigate this high-stakes scenario carefully. Let's dissect the technical and fundamental catalysts to uncover where the next move might lead.

Technicals: A Bullish Trend Faces Critical Crossroads

Core Scientific's chart tells a story of explosive momentum. Since hitting a low of $10.50 in early 2025, the stock has surged past its 50-day and 200-day moving averages, forming a bullish “golden cross” that signals sustained upward momentum. Yet, the RSI at 80.55 now sits in overbought territory—a red flag for short-term corrections.

The immediate battleground lies at $18.65, the all-time high from November 2024. A breakout here could trigger a rally toward $27.30, a target derived from the measured move of its cup-and-handle pattern. But traders must remain vigilant: a failure to hold $13, the pattern's key support, could unravel gains, with the next stop at $10.50—the 50-day moving average and a psychological floor.

Fundamental Catalysts: Why the Buzz?

The CoreWeave buyout rumors are no fluke. Core Scientific's 724 MW of immersion-cooled GPU capacity positions it as a critical partner for AI training—a sector where CoreWeave commands significant demand. A 2024 deal already locks in $10.2 billion over 12 years for 590 MW of capacity, underpinning its cash flow. Analysts at Cantor Fitzgerald argue this infrastructure's replacement value alone could justify a $30 share price, nearly double its current level.

Yet, risks loom large. Core Scientific's Bitcoin mining revenue has cratered, now contributing just 20% of revenue. Its pivot to colocation services, which account for 80% of income, hinges on sustaining demand from hyperscalers and AI firms. Execution is also a concern: delivering the 590 MW by 2026 and managing CoreWeave's $8 billion debt load could test even the most bullish scenarios.

The Trade: High Risk, High Reward

For traders, the next few weeks will test whether this rally is built to last. Here's how to approach it:

1. Bullish Scenario: If CORZ breaches $18.65, the path to $27.30 opens. A sustained breakout here could validate the buyout narrative, attracting momentum players. However, volume will be key—weak volume during rallies may signal exhaustion.
2. Bearish Watch: Below $13, the stock risks a sharp correction to $10.50, especially if the buyout talks stall or valuation concerns resurface. The 50-day MA at $10.50 acts as a final line of defense.
3. Overbought Caution: Despite the bullish trend, the RSI's overbought state suggests a pullback to $14–$16 is likely. This retracement could offer a buying opportunity for those willing to ride the long-term AI thesis.

Final Take: A High-Stakes Gamble on AI's Future

Core Scientific is a poster child for the AI infrastructure boom—but it's also a textbook example of risk-reward asymmetry. The buyout rumors have inflated expectations to near-stratospheric levels, and any misstep (missed capacity deadlines, CoreWeave's debt issues) could trigger a sharp selloff.

For aggressive traders, the $13–$18.65 range defines the battleground. A breakout above $18.65 offers a high-reward trade, while a close below $13 demands caution. Meanwhile, investors with a long-term view should wait for clarity on the buyout and a pullback to more reasonable valuations.

In this volatile landscape, one truth remains: Core Scientific's fate is tied to its ability to deliver on the AI promise. Until then, the market will keep its fingers on the technicals—and its eyes on the next resistance level.

Stay nimble, and trade with discipline.