Copper Mining Resurgence in the U.S. and the Strategic Potential of Arizona's Casa Grande Project

The United States is undergoing a seismic shift in its approach to critical mineral security, driven by geopolitical tensions, supply chain vulnerabilities, and the urgent demand for resources to power the energy transition. Copper, a linchpin for renewable energy infrastructure, electric vehicles (EVs), and defense systems, has become a focal point of this strategic pivot. As the U.S. seeks to reduce its reliance on foreign imports—particularly from China—the domestic copper mining sector is experiencing a renaissance. At the heart of this transformation lies Arizona's Casa Grande Project, a development that could redefine the nation's approach to critical mineral security while offering compelling investment potential.

Geopolitical Drivers of the Copper Mining Resurgence

The U.S. has long grappled with supply chain risks in critical minerals, with over 50% of its demand for copper and other essential metals historically sourced from foreign markets. This vulnerability has intensified since 2023, when China began restricting exports of critical minerals, including copper, to strategic partners. By 2025, these restrictions have expanded to include 41 out of 50 critical minerals deemed vital for national security and economic resilience.

In response, the Trump administration has prioritized domestic mineral production through a series of executive orders, including the landmark Executive Order 14213 (February 20, 2025), which established the National Energy Dominance Council (NEDC). This body, composed of 19 senior officials, is tasked with accelerating permitting, streamlining regulations, and prioritizing federal lands for mineral development. The order also delegates authority under the Defense Production Act (DPA) to facilitate domestic production, ensuring that mineral extraction and processing are treated as national security imperatives.

The Resolution Copper Mining Project in Arizona, which received final environmental clearance in June 2025, exemplifies this strategy. Expected to produce 234,000 metric tons of copper annually, the project aligns with the administration's goal of reducing foreign dependency while generating $200 million in federal revenue and 1,500 local jobs. However, the Casa Grande Project, developed by Arizona Sonoran Copper Company (ASCU), may prove even more pivotal in the long term.

Economic and Supply-Chain Implications of the Casa Grande Project

The Casa Grande Project, located near Casa Grande, Arizona, is a low-cost, high-margin copper development that has emerged as a cornerstone of U.S. critical mineral strategy. With a 31-year mine life and an initial 20-year production phase, the project is projected to produce 116,000 short tons of copper cathode annually, based on a base case price of $3.90 per pound. Its financial metrics are equally compelling: an after-tax NPV of $2.03 billion, an IRR of 24%, and C1 cash costs of $1.88 per pound. These figures position the project as one of the most economically viable copper developments in North America.

The project's strategic value extends beyond its financials. By 2025, the U.S. is expected to produce 1.2 million metric tons of copper, driven by the expansion of existing mines and the development of new projects like Casa Grande. This output is critical for meeting the surging demand from the energy transition, which is projected to increase copper consumption by 50% by 2030. The Casa Grande Project's heap leach SXEW processing method and focus on water recycling and renewable energy integration align with the Biden administration's climate goals while ensuring operational sustainability.

Moreover, the project's development timeline is accelerating. In 2024, ASCU completed a record 174,370 feet of drilling, expanding the resource estimate to 7.3 billion pounds of copper. The company has also secured key permits, including an Industrial Air Permit from Pinal County, and is advancing its Pre-Feasibility Study (PFS) and Definitive Feasibility Study (DFS). With construction expected to begin in late 2026, the project is on track to become a mid-tier U.S. copper producer by 2028.

Investment Rationale: Copper as a Strategic Commodity

The Casa Grande Project's potential is amplified by broader macroeconomic trends. Copper prices have surged in recent years, driven by the Inflation Reduction Act's (IRA) incentives for domestic processing and the global shift toward decarbonization. show a steady upward trajectory, with the metal trading at $4.20 per pound in July 2025—well above the $3.90 base case for the Casa Grande Project.

Investors are also turning their attention to U.S. copper miners that align with national security objectives. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX), the largest U.S. copper producer, has seen its stock price rise 35% year-to-date, reflecting strong demand for domestic production. highlights the company's resilience amid volatile markets. Similarly, Southern Copper (SCCO) and Newmont Corporation (NEM) are benefiting from the reshoring trend, with both companies expanding their U.S. operations.

For smaller, project-focused developers like ASCU, the stakes are even higher. The company has raised $59.2 million CAD in 2024 and early 2025 to fund its Casa Grande development, with a fully funded work plan through 2025. While ASCU's stock is currently undervalued relative to its peers, its strong ESG profile and alignment with U.S. policy priorities make it an attractive long-term investment.

Supply-Chain Resilience and the Future of U.S. Copper Production

The Casa Grande Project is not an isolated development but part of a broader ecosystem of U.S. copper projects aimed at securing the supply chain. Companies like Hudbay Minerals (HBM) and New World Resources are also advancing large-scale projects, including the Copper World complex and the Antler project, which could add 92,000 and 36 million pounds of annual copper production, respectively.

These projects are critical for achieving the U.S. government's goal of producing 25% of its copper domestically by 2030. The National Energy Dominance Council has identified 15 priority mineral projects for expedited permitting, and the Casa Grande Project is among them. With its low operating costs, strategic location, and strong community support (87% local approval in 2024), the project is well-positioned to become a flagship of the U.S. critical mineral renaissance.

Conclusion: A Copper-Centric Future

The U.S. copper mining resurgence is more than a response to geopolitical pressures—it is a strategic investment in the future of energy, infrastructure, and national security. Arizona's Casa Grande Project, with its robust economics, sustainable practices, and alignment with federal policy, represents a rare opportunity for investors to participate in the reshoring of critical mineral production. As global demand for copper continues to outpace supply, the U.S. is poised to reclaim its position as a leader in this essential sector.

For investors, the message is clear: copper is not just a metal—it is a foundational element of the 21st-century economy. Those who recognize its strategic value and the transformative potential of projects like Casa Grande will be well-positioned to capitalize on the next phase of the energy transition.