Cooxupé Faces Export Decline Amid Global Coffee Glut and U.S. Tariff Aftermath—Trade Window Narrows for Rebound

Cooxupé's 2026 export plan is a story of contraction against a backdrop of global expansion. The cooperative, Brazil's largest coffee exporter, projects total exports of 4.4 million 60-kg bags for the year. That represents a 500,000-saca reduction from 2025, a direct consequence of a smaller harvest last season.

The driver is clear. Total production for Cooxupé, including coffee sold domestically, is expected to reach 5.8 million bags this year, down from 6.4 million in 2025. This dip in the overall crop volume sets the stage for lower export volumes. The timing of this reduction is already apparent. The superintendente comercial noted that the impact will be felt on the first semester of 2026.

Recovery is anticipated later in the year. As the new 2026/27 harvest arrives, Cooxupé expects to ramp up shipments in the second half. The company is banking on the new crop to replenish stocks and boost exports, with officials suggesting that embarkations should be expanded in the second semester. This creates a distinct seasonal pattern: a constrained start to the year giving way to a potential rebound as the new crop comes in.

The bottom line is a clear tension. While Cooxupé's export volume is shrinking, the broader Brazilian coffee sector is poised for a record production year. This divergence highlights how individual producer realities can differ sharply from global supply trends. For Cooxupé, the immediate challenge is managing a smaller inventory from last year's harvest, with the path to higher exports tied directly to the size of the crop it can harvest this coming season.

The Trade and Price Context: Tariffs, Stocks, and Record Output

The external pressures on Cooxupé's export volume are multifaceted, shaped by lingering trade disruptions and conflicting signals from global supply and price trends. The most immediate headwind is the U.S. market, Brazil's largest consumer, which has not fully normalized post-tariff. When President Trump imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian goods last year, shipments to the United States plummeted 55% between August and November. Although the tariff was later reversed, the disruption had a lasting effect, pushing the U.S. to second place behind Germany for Brazilian coffee imports. More critically, the tariff period prompted U.S. buyers to build up inventories from alternative origins like Colombia, creating a stockpile that dampens immediate demand for new Brazilian shipments.

This trade friction contrasts with the overwhelming supply story. Global coffee production is projected to hit a record 180 million bags in the 2026/27 season, up about 8 million bags from the previous year. This outlook is being driven by a bumper Brazilian crop, with Conab forecasting a 17.2% year-over-year increase to 66.2 million bags. The sheer volume of anticipated supply is weighing heavily on prices. Over the past month, coffee prices have sold off sharply, with arabica hitting a 15-month low and robusta tumbling to a 6.5-month low. The recovery in ICE coffee inventories from recent lows also adds to the bearish pressure.

The price weakness creates a stark contrast with the previous year's export performance. In 2025, Brazil achieved a record $15.6 billion in coffee export revenue despite a 21% decline in volume. That success was driven by a 57% increase in average prices to $389.17 per bag. The current price slide suggests that dynamic is reversing; higher volumes now face lower prices. For Cooxupé, this means its strategy of exporting a smaller volume in the first half of 2026 is unfolding against a backdrop of weak pricing, which could compress margins even if the company manages to move its planned 4.4 million bags.

The bottom line is a complex trade-off. Cooxupé is navigating a smaller harvest, but the broader market is being flooded with supply from Brazil and Vietnam. At the same time, its key export market remains partially stocked from a tariff-induced shift. The cooperative's plan to ramp up shipments in the second half hinges on the new crop, but it will be selling into a market where price pressure is building.

Financial Implications and Forward Scenarios

The financial outlook for Cooxupé hinges on navigating a complex mix of internal production shifts and external trade headwinds. The cooperative's recent performance provides a high bar. In 2024, it posted a record revenue of R$ 10.7 billion, a 67% surge from the prior year. That success was built on a 46% year-over-year increase in total coffee commercialized. However, the president has tempered expectations for 2025, noting that while faturamento (revenue) will be higher, the actual resultado (profit) is uncertain. He pointed to two key pressures: a "market inverted" futures structure and high financing costs, which can squeeze margins even as sales volumes hold.

The primary risk to that profit trajectory is market share erosion. With export volumes projected to dip to 4.4 million bags in 2026, down from 5.8 million in 2025, Cooxupé faces a direct hit to its core business. The cooperative's leadership warns that if this export constraint persists, it could "do damage to the pocket of all Brazilian producers." This is a critical vulnerability. As the largest exporter, Cooxupé's volume directly influences the sector's pricing power and its ability to secure favorable contracts. A prolonged period of lower shipments, especially to its key customer the United States, weakens its bargaining position and could trigger a broader price decline for the entire Brazilian coffee industry.

The path to recovery is contingent on two major catalysts. First, the normalization of U.S. trade relations is essential. The cooperative's commercial superintendente stated that a return to pre-tariff volumes is not expected until late 2026 or 2027. The lingering impact of the 50% tariff last year, which caused a 55% plunge in U.S. shipments between August and November, has left American buyers reliant on alternative origins. This stockpile dampens immediate demand, and ongoing investigations into Brazilian coffee practices continue to create uncertainty that "atrapalha contratos de longo prazo." Second, the arrival of the new 2026/27 harvest is the fundamental supply driver. The cooperative's plan to ramp up shipments in the second half of 2026 depends entirely on this new crop replenishing its inventory and providing the volume to meet export commitments.

The bottom line is a scenario of delayed gratification. Cooxupé's financial performance in 2026 is likely to be pressured by lower export volumes and weak pricing, even as it works to rebuild. The cooperative's record revenue in 2024 sets a high watermark, but 2025 and 2026 will test its resilience. The full return to robust export levels-and the profit recovery that follows-depends on a multi-year process of trade normalization and a successful new harvest, with a clear return to pre-tariff volumes not expected until well into 2027.