Cookie DAO/Tether Market Overview

• Price dipped from 0.0849 to 0.0718 amid bearish momentum, with oversold RSI and declining volume in the final hours.
• Volatility expanded sharply in the last 6 hours as price dropped 7.7% below key support near 0.078.
• Bollinger Band contraction occurred early morning, followed by a sharp break below the 20-period MA.
• Low-to-close dominance in most 15-minute candles suggests bearish exhaustion and potential reversal.
• A possible bounce from 0.072–0.074 is likely, but momentum remains weak with RSI near oversold levels.

Price Movement and Structure

The Cookie DAO/Tether (COOKIEUSDT) pair opened at 0.0849 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0718 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period saw a high of 0.0859 and a low of 0.0700, indicating a sharp bearish trend. Total trading volume amounted to 10,975,663.3 units, while notional turnover (volume × average price) was approximately $793,838. The price structure shows a breakdown of key support levels and a potential consolidation phase near 0.072.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are significantly above the current price, reinforcing the bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period moving averages are all above the current price, suggesting a medium-term downtrend. The price may attempt to find support near the 50-period MA on the daily chart if bearish momentum weakens.

Momentum and Volatility

The RSI has fallen into oversold territory (below 30), indicating potential for a short-term rebound. However, the MACD histogram has been declining, pointing to weakening momentum. Bollinger Bands show a recent expansion, with the price closing near the lower band—another bearish sign. Volatility increased during the final 6 hours, coinciding with the price drop below 0.078. This divergence between price and volatility may suggest a potential reversal.

Volume and Turnover

Volume spiked significantly during the last 6 hours, particularly after the price dropped below 0.078. Notional turnover also increased, indicating heightened bearish activity. However, the volume in the final candle was slightly lower than in the prior hour, which could signal a potential lack of follow-through. A divergence between price and volume may hint at a possible reversal, though confirmation is still pending.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.0859 to 0.0700, the price appears to have found support near the 61.8% level (~0.072). On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement level aligns with a key psychological price of 0.075, which could become a target for short-term bounces if the RSI rebounds. A failure to hold above 0.070 would likely see a test of the 50% retracement level (~0.078).

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent oversold RSI readings and bearish divergence, an RSI-based backtesting strategy could provide valuable insights. A reasonable approach would involve using the default 14-period RSI, with a long entry signal when RSI falls below 30. A closing rule could be set to exit when RSI crosses back above 50, balancing risk with reward. Applying this to COOKIEUSDT from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-03 would test whether the oversold bounce in recent sessions is a recurring theme or an isolated event. Additional stop-loss or profit-target parameters may enhance the strategy’s robustness, especially in a volatile market like this one.