Convex Finance/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• Price consolidates near 1.93–1.94 after a sharp selloff from 2.02.
• Volatility remains elevated with volume peaking above 20,000.
• RSI and MACD suggest a potential rebound from oversold territory.

Convex Finance/Tether (CVXUSDT) opened at 1.991 on 2025-11-03 at 12:00 ET, hit a 24-hour high of 2.022, and closed at 1.924 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-04. The total traded volume over the 24-hour window was 600,803.899 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $1,168,992 (assuming average price of ~$1.946).

Structure & Formations

Price action shows a bearish breakdown from key resistance at 1.98–2.00, followed by a consolidation phase near 1.93–1.94. A long bearish candle closed the 24-hour period, indicating strong selling pressure. Key support levels appear to be forming at 1.90 and 1.885, with the 1.93–1.94 range currently acting as a barrier to further downside.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both trending downward, with the price consistently trading below both. This suggests a short-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, price is below the 50/100/200 EMA cluster, reinforcing a longer-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

RSI has been in oversold territory (<30) for much of the day, hinting at a potential short-term bounce. MACD is negative and trending lower, but the histogram has shown signs of contraction, suggesting a slowdown in the bearish momentum. A potential reversal could occur if RSI breaks above 35 with confirmation on price.

Bollinger Bands

Convex Finance/Tether has traded near the lower Bollinger Band for much of the 24-hour period, indicating extreme bearish momentum. The band width has expanded during the selloff, suggesting rising volatility. If price remains above the 1.93–1.94 range, a reversal could see it move toward the middle band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 21,000+ during a sharp drop from 1.98 to 1.92. However, the recent consolidation phase shows declining volume, which may indicate fading bearish conviction. Notional turnover has remained above $15,000 per 15-minute interval during key price moves.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the recent 15-minute swing from 2.02 to 1.92, price has found support near the 61.8% retracement level (~1.94). Daily Fibonacci levels show the 61.8% retracement from the 1.98–1.92 move aligning with 1.93–1.94, reinforcing the potential for a short-term bounce.

Backtest Hypothesis

The system was unable to retrieve MACD data for the ticker “CVXUSDT,” likely due to symbol availability or data-source limitations. MACD-based strategies often rely on golden/death cross signals, which could inform short-term buy/sell decisions. If MACD data were available, a backtest could validate the effectiveness of these signals in capturing momentum shifts. However, without valid MACD data, this approach cannot be applied directly at this time.