Convex Finance Market Overview (2025-08-25)

• Convex Finance (CVXUSDC) closed lower at 3.98, down from an open of 4.164, with volatility expanding after a midday rally.
• Price tested key support levels at 4.02 and 4.08 but failed to hold above, signaling bearish momentum.
• Volume surged to over 2900 on the 15-minute chart during the late-night sell-off, confirming bearish sentiment.
• RSI moved into oversold territory below 30, suggesting potential for near-term bounce, though not reversal.
• A large bearish engulfing pattern formed after the 00:45 ET candle, reinforcing downward bias.

Market Overview

Convex Finance’s CVXUSDC pair opened at 4.164 on 2025-08-24 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.98 on 2025-08-25 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 4.444 and a low of 3.913. Total volume across the 24-hour window was approximately 28,670, while notional turnover was around $112,500, based on average prices. The pair experienced heightened volatility and a significant price drop during the late-night and early morning hours.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart displayed a strong bearish shift following a failed rally above 4.30. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed after the 00:45 ET candle, as the close of 4.238 was below the low of the prior candle and below the 4.286 open. This was followed by a sharp decline to 3.98 by midday, with price failing to retest key resistance at 4.08 and 4.02. A notable doji appeared at 03:45 ET (4.299), suggesting indecision, but was quickly invalidated by bearish follow-through.

Moving Averages

Short-term moving averages on the 15-minute chart (20 and 50-period) showed a clear bearish crossover late in the 24-hour period, reinforcing the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages were not provided in the dataset, but the closing price of 3.98 may now be testing the 50-day level, depending on the broader context. A break below this level could trigger extended selling.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative late in the session and showed a bearish crossover after the 00:45 ET candle. The indicator remained in negative territory, suggesting ongoing bearish momentum. RSI dipped to 28 at the close, indicating oversold conditions, though without a strong bounce above 4.02, this may not trigger a reversal but rather a bounce within a larger downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Price traded near the upper Bollinger Band for a brief period around 01:30 ET at 4.313 but quickly collapsed back toward the lower band by the morning. This suggests a recent volatility expansion after a period of consolidation. A bounce from the lower band may occur, but a sustained move above 4.08 would be needed to regain bullish sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the overnight sell-off, with the 00:45 ET candle showing a turnover of $11,978 on 3100.308 volume and the 01:30 ET candle showing $13,079 on 201.064 volume. The divergence between price and volume in the late morning (after the 05:30 ET candle) showed weakening bearish conviction, but was quickly negated by the sharp drop in the early hours.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the 00:45 to 01:30 ET rally at around 4.18 before continuing lower. On the daily chart, a key 61.8% retracement level may now be near 3.98, and a break below this could extend the move toward 3.80 or lower.

Convex Finance appears to be in a bearish consolidation phase with key support at 3.98 and 3.913. A potential bounce into the 4.02–4.08 range could occur in the next 24 hours, but without strong volume confirmation or a break above 4.16, a deeper pullback remains likely. Investors should monitor volume and RSI for signs of a reversal or continuation.