Contrarian Opportunities in Risky Tokens: Why LUNA, JELLYJELLY, and Meme Coins Are Defying the Bear Market

The 2025 crypto bear market has been defined by widespread pessimism, with the Fear & Greed Index hitting a historic low of 20 in February and the broader market cap of meme coins declining 9% to $40 billion. Yet, within this downturn, tokens like LUNA, JELLYJELLY, and meme coins have shown surprising resilience. Behavioral finance and on-chain metrics reveal a compelling narrative: speculative momentum and contrarian psychology are creating asymmetric opportunities in high-risk assets.

Behavioral Finance: The Psychology of Contrarianism

Meme coin investors in 2025 exhibit a unique duality. On one hand, they are risk-averse, with many exiting volatile tokens due to red flags like illiquidity and sharp retracements. On the other, they are drawn to community-driven narratives amplified by social media. For instance, JELLYJELLY's 89% 24-hour surge in November 2025 was fueled by whale accumulation of 3.6 million tokens and viral momentum on platforms like X (Twitter). This duality reflects the "fear of missing out" (FOMO) and herd behavior, which behavioral finance identifies as key drivers of speculative bubbles.

Retail investors are increasingly relying on on-chain signals to time entries and exits. Whale activity, for example, has become a proxy for institutional interest. JELLYJELLY's open interest peaked at $31 million in November 2025, with $13 million concentrated on Binance, suggesting coordinated accumulation. Similarly, LUNA's resurgence-marked by a two-year high in open interest following the Terra 2.0 relaunch highlights how network upgrades can rekindle speculative fervor.

Speculative Momentum: On-Chain Metrics as a Contrarian Lens

On-chain data paints a nuanced picture of speculative momentum. While JELLYJELLY's 24-hour trading volume hit $45.7 million, its price volatility-exemplified by a 44.10% drop in trading volume over 24 hours-signals a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers. This volatility is not unique to 2025. Historical comparisons reveal that meme coins, despite severe declines during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets, have consistently attracted new capital during downturns. For example, Ethereum's 2018 crash (93.8% drawdown) and 2022 slump (81% drawdown) were followed by rebounds driven by novel narratives, such as NFTs and memecoin 2.0 projects according to analytics.

The 2025 cycle mirrors this pattern. Tokens like GoBanga and Useless Coin have seen short-term gains due to viral social media campaigns, while PIPPIN's brief rally to $0.35 underscores the role of retail-driven liquidity according to recent data. These dynamics suggest that meme coins are evolving into a distinct asset class, where speculative demand is less correlated with macroeconomic cycles and more tied to social sentiment.

Historical Context: Contrarian Validation

Though specific historical price data for LUNA and JELLYJELLY during the 2018 and 2022 bear markets is sparse, aggregated open interest trends provide insight. For instance, JELLYJELLY's open interest on platforms like Hyperliquid and Binance has historically spiked during bear markets, reflecting leveraged bets by traders exploiting price swings. Similarly, LUNA's 2022 crash-triggered by the Terra ecosystem's collapse-was followed by a 2025 rebound tied to Terra 2.0's relaunch according to market analysis. This cyclical resilience aligns with the "contrarian investing" principle: buying assets at market lows when pessimism dominates.

The 2025 bear market also highlights a shift in investor behavior. While 25% of global crypto attention remains fixated on meme coins, the Fear & Greed Index's "fear" reading indicates a risk-off environment. This dissonance creates a fertile ground for contrarian strategies. For example, JELLYJELLY's recent liquidation data-1,271 accounts liquidated for $698.59K-suggests short-term pain but also hints at a potential bottoming process as retail investors re-enter at lower prices.

Risks and Rationality

Critics argue that meme coins and risky tokens are inherently speculative, prone to exit scams and hyper-volatility. Indeed, JELLYJELLY's removal from Hyperliquid's futures market in prior cycles due to extreme price swings underscores these risks. However, behavioral finance posits that irrationality is a market feature, not a bug. By leveraging on-chain analytics and sentiment tools, investors can identify "rational irrationality"-moments where speculative demand aligns with structural catalysts like network upgrades or whale accumulation according to market data.

Conclusion: The Case for Contrarian Allocation

The 2025 bear market has not extinguished speculative momentum in risky tokens. Instead, it has refined it. LUNA's Terra 2.0 relaunch, JELLYJELLY's whale-driven rallies, and meme coins' social media virality demonstrate that contrarian opportunities exist even in downturns. For investors willing to navigate the noise, on-chain metrics and behavioral insights offer a roadmap to capitalize on asymmetric risk-reward profiles.

As the market matures, the line between speculation and strategic investing will blur. Those who embrace this duality-leveraging both data and psychology-may find themselves positioned to outperform in the next bull cycle.