Contradictions Emerge on GfK Integration, Margin Expansion, and Activation Revenue Timing

Date of Call: November 13, 2025

Financials Results

• Revenue: $1.1B, organic constant currency revenue up 5.8% YOY (Q3 2025)
• Operating Margin: Adjusted EBITDA margin 21.3%, up 300 bps YOY; adjusted EBITDA $223.7M, up 25% YOY; +60 bps sequential (Q2 to Q3)

Guidance:

• Q4 2025: reported revenue growth ~7.0%–7.3%; organic constant currency revenue ~5.0%–5.3%; adjusted EBITDA growth ~25%–26%; adjusted EBITDA margin nearing ~25%; Q4 levered free cash flow $55M–$60M.
• Full-year 2025: reported revenue growth ~5.1%–5.2%; organic constant currency revenue ~5.5%–5.6%; adjusted EBITDA growth ~22%–23%; adjusted EBITDA margin nearing ~22%; full-year levered free cash flow breakeven.
• 2026 preview: expect mid-single-digit revenue growth, significant margin expansion and materially higher free cash flow; midterm target mid-20s EBITDA margin.

Business Commentary:

* Revenue and Profitability Growth: - NIQ Global Intelligence plc reported organic constant currency revenue growth of 5.8% to $1.1 billion for Q3 2025, surpassing the top end of their August guidance. The company also reported a 21% net margin and 25% growth in adjusted EBITDA. - The growth was driven by strong pricing strategies, innovation, and successful execution of their integration playbook at GfK, with APAC and EMEA regions contributing significantly.

• Impact of AI and Data Moat:
• NIQ's AI-driven initiatives, such as NexIQ and the Gen AI Copilot, have significantly enhanced their data processing speed and precision, leading to improved market insights for clients.

• The company's vast and proprietary consumer data, spanning decades and covering 220 million items, provides a competitive advantage and enhances the value of their products and services.

• Growth in EMEA and Consumer Panels:

• EMEA region showed 8.8% organic constant currency revenue growth, driven by the successful integration of GfK acquisitions and the expansion of consumer panel services.
• The growth was attributed to the inclusion of Panel on Demand service, which offers a unique combination of retail measurement and consumer panel data, attracting new clients and improving client retention.

• Activation Revenue and Pipeline:
• NIQ's Activation revenue showed improvement, and the client pipeline remained robust, with new innovations such as AI-first BASES and analytics products contributing to growth.
• The growth in Activation is supported by AI-powered tools that provide clients with actionable insights, increasing revenue and bolstering momentum heading into 2026.

Sentiment Analysis:

Overall Tone: Positive

• Management: "Q3 results beat expectations across the board, 5.8% organic constant currency revenue growth, 21% margins...We've raised our 2025 outlook"; CFO: "delivered $224.4 million of levered free cash flow...raising full year 2025 levered free cash flow guidance to breakeven"; adjusted EBITDA up 25% to $223.7M.

Q&A:

• Question from Alexander EM Hess (JPMorgan Chase & Co): Can you describe clients' wallet (trade, R&D, marketing) and what's increasing your share of wallet?
  Response: Clients view NIQ as mission-critical across cycles; AI-enabled innovation and new products (Discover, BASES AI) plus pricing/cross-sell are increasing NIQ's share of wallet.

• Question from Manav Patnaik (Barclays): Where does your data come from—how much is bought versus collected and how defensible is it?
  Response: NIQ ingests data from thousands of retailers, field auditors and large consumer panels and layers extensive coding/metadata and stewardship—creating a hard-to-replicate proprietary moat.

• Question from Manav Patnaik (Barclays): Early thoughts on momentum carrying into 2026 and how to think about prior numbers?
  Response: Management expects current momentum to continue into 2026, sees AI-driven revenue and coding/margin benefits, and will provide formal 2026 guidance in February.

• Question from Ashish Sabadra (RBC Capital Markets): What's driving the material acceleration in EMEA growth?
  Response: EMEA acceleration driven by GfK turnaround (tech & durables) and strong adoption of Panel-on-Demand—enabling combined measurement+panel sales and >20% panel growth in EMEA.

• Question from Ashish Sabadra (RBC Capital Markets): Any incremental color/visibility on Activation revenue for Q4?
  Response: Activation has a robust Q4 pipeline and seasonally strong demand; management expects a good Q4 for Activation.

• Question from Thomas Roesch (William Blair): Color on pipeline in Q4 and exit-year visibility across Intelligence and Activation?
  Response: Pipeline is highly visible and predictable; management sees new wins and projects clearly and expects momentum to continue into 2026.

• Question from Thomas Roesch (William Blair): Health of the SMB market and growth in the quarter?
  Response: SMB remains strong—~20% growth in 2024 and YTD 2025—with steady client acquisition and scale potential despite higher churn.

• Question from Jeffrey Meuler (Robert W. Baird): Sustainability/runway for Panel-on-Demand and adoption outside EMEA?
  Response: Panel-on-Demand has a long global runway; EMEA benefited from previously lifted restrictions but similar opportunities exist elsewhere given NIQ's unique combined offering.

• Question from Jeffrey Meuler (Robert W. Baird): Why is margin expansion concentrated in EMEA if AI is a broader driver?
  Response: About half of recent margin improvement is from GfK integration (largely EMEA); the rest is AI-driven efficiencies across coding, ops and customer success applied globally.

• Question from Wahid Amin (BofA Securities): What contributed to pricing/up-sell this quarter—region specific?
  Response: Revenue algorithm: ~2.5% from pricing and ~2.5% from innovation/cross-sell; e‑commerce, panels (Panel-on-Demand) and SMB were notable contributors.

• Question from Wahid Amin (BofA Securities): Americas organic growth has slowed—any client-level concerns or reasons for confidence?
  Response: Deceleration reflects tough Q3 comps (9% growth last year); U.S. Panel-on-Demand launched later, so management expects acceleration in Q4 and into next year.

• Question from Shlomo Rosenbaum (Stifel): Status of GfK integration, operational progress, margin vs top-line contribution, and DSO comment?
  Response: GfK integration execution is on track using NIQ's playbook, driving top-line recovery and contributing materially (~50%) to margin gains; earlier Q2 DSO timing issues resolved in Q3.

• Question from Shlomo Rosenbaum (Stifel): Why sequential margins fell in Americas and APAC—seasonality, mix, or investments?
  Response: APAC margins impacted by ongoing investments to expand coverage; Americas margins affected by tougher comps and fixed costs—net result still positive YoY margin expansion.

• Question from Jeffrey Silber (BMO Capital Markets): Why wasn't there notable gross margin expansion this quarter?
  Response: No specific gross-margin anomaly identified; management focuses on EBITDA margin where they saw meaningful expansion.

• Question from Jason Haas (Wells Fargo): Q4 guidance implies organic decel—any factors causing that despite positive commentary?
  Response: Guidance is conservatively set as part of prudent public-company posture; management sees no systemic slowdown in the business.

• Question from Jason Haas (Wells Fargo): Rationale behind calling out significant margin expansion for next year—any one-offs this year?
  Response: Expected continued margin expansion stems from ongoing GfK synergies (large contributor) plus accelerating AI-driven efficiency gains; the mid-20s EBITDA-margin target remains the midterm objective.

Contradiction Point 1

GfK Integration and Margin Expansion

It involves the progress and expected outcomes of the GfK integration, which directly impacts financial performance and investor expectations.

Can you update us on the GfK integration progress, operational aspects, and margins? - Shlomo Rosenbaum (Stifel, Nicolaus & Company, Incorporated, Research Division)

2025Q3: Integration is progressing well, with continued margin improvement and operational efficiencies. We anticipate another 200 basis points of margin expansion next year. - Michael Burwell(CFO)

What are the components of margin expansion such as GfK synergies and NIQ transformation? - Andy Grobler (BNP)

2025Q2: We had a strong quarter results-wise and we started the breakdown of the 200 basis points of margin expansion guidance to about 60% of it being GfK, 30% of it being just from the 80% fixed cost base and the rest 10% being NIQ transformation. - James Peck(CEO)

Contradiction Point 2

Activation Revenue and Client Project Timing

It affects expectations regarding the timing and execution of client projects, which could impact revenue and growth projections.

Can you provide an update on your Q4 pipeline and year-end progress in Intelligence and Activation? - Thomas Roesch (William Blair & Company L.L.C., Research Division)

2025Q3: We have strong visibility in our pipeline. We focus on price increases, new wins, and spending client budget. The momentum is expected to continue into 2026. - James Peck(CEO & Chairman)

What caused the project timing delays, and will the softness continue into Q3? - [Jun Li] (for Jason Haas, Wells Fargo)

2025Q2: The softness was due to strong Q2 comps last year. We have lower comps in the second half. The order book is strong, and we expect no softness in Q3 or Q4. - Tracey Massey(COO)