Consumer Stocks Rise Amid Tariff Uncertainty: NRF's Global Port Tracker Shows Highest Volume in a Year

Consumer stocks rose despite ongoing uncertainty about tariffs' impact on businesses. The National Retail Federation's Global Port Tracker estimated July's import volume at 2.3 million loaded containers, the highest in a year. However, the NRF expects volumes to decline in the fall due to tariffs. Under Armour's stock fell due to projected sales decline, while Expedia Group's shares rose after raising its full-year outlook.

Consumer stocks displayed a mixed response to ongoing uncertainty about the impact of tariffs on businesses. The National Retail Federation's Global Port Tracker estimated July's import volume at 2.3 million loaded containers, the highest in a year. However, the NRF expects volumes to decline in the fall due to anticipated tariffs [1].

Under Armour, a leading sportswear maker, saw its stock fall as the company projected a worsening sales decline in the current quarter. The retailer has struggled to drive up demand in recent years, and efforts to revive the business have been hindered by shifting tariff policies from the Trump administration [2, 3]. Under Armour expects quarterly gross margin to decline by 340 to 360 basis points due to potential tariff-related supply chain snags. The company faces direct risks from President Trump's 20% tariffs on goods from Vietnam and 19% on Indonesian goods [3].

In contrast, Expedia Group Inc. (NASDAQ:EXPE) saw its shares surge nearly 16% after reporting better-than-expected second-quarter results and raising its full-year outlook. The online travel company posted adjusted earnings of $4.24 per share, comfortably beating analyst expectations of $3.96. Revenue rose 6% year-over-year (YoY) to $3.79 billion, and total gross bookings increased 5% to $30.41 billion. The company's B2B and Advertising segments were standout performers, with revenue growth of 15% and 19%, respectively [4].

Despite the mixed signals, the overall impact of tariffs on the broader economy remains uncertain. Analysts have warned that the new tariffs could shave about 1% from India's GDP, with the cumulative tariffs making exports to the US uncompetitive. India's central bank sees the economy expanding at 6.5% in fiscal 2026, but analysts see the medium-term impact as even higher, at 1.1% [1].

As the tariff landscape continues to evolve, businesses and investors must remain vigilant. The federal government and the Reserve Bank of India are expected to provide policy support to boost growth if high tariffs persist. The levies are applicable on two-thirds of India’s shipments worth $58 billion to the US, according to Morgan Stanley [1].

References:
[1] https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-07/new-trump-tariffs-may-clip-india-gdp-growth-by-1-analysts-say
[2] https://finance.yahoo.com/news/under-armour-forecasts-downbeat-second-110209393.html
[3] https://www.businessoffashion.com/news/sports/under-armour-forecasts-downbeat-second-quarter-sales/
[4] https://www.investing.com/news/earnings/expedia-shares-soar-16-after-beating-expectations-raising-guidance-93CH-4178222