Consulting Firms as Unseen Winners in Trade Policy Volatility

In an era of relentless trade policy volatility, where tariffs and geopolitical tensions reshape global commerce, one sector is quietly thriving: consulting firms. PwC and KPMG, among others, are emerging as strategic beneficiaries of corporate uncertainty, capitalizing on surging demand for supply chain reengineering, regulatory compliance, and cost-optimization services. With trade policies now a permanent source of instability, these firms are positioned to deliver outsized returns for investors seeking defensive plays in a turbulent macro landscape.

The Surge in Consulting Demand: A Tailwind for PwC and KPMG

The U.S.-China trade war, Trump’s 2024 tariffs, and ongoing geopolitical shifts have created a “perfect storm” for businesses. Companies are scrambling to restructure supply chains, navigate tariff compliance, and mitigate cost pressures—all areas where PwC and KPMG excel.

PwC: Leveraging AI and Cross-Functional Expertise

PwC’s FY2024 global revenues hit $55.4 billion, a 4.3% increase driven by 30% growth in its Managed Services division, which handles supply chain reconfiguration and tariff mitigation. The firm’s partnership with OpenAI and $1.5 billion AI investments have supercharged its ability to deliver data-driven solutions. For instance:
- Supply Chain Reengineering: Clients in industrial manufacturing and consumer retail are paying premium fees to redesign logistics networks and avoid tariff impacts.
- Regulatory Compliance: With Pillar Two tax rules and ESG mandates compounding complexity, PwC’s “end-to-end” advisory services (spanning tax, logistics, and tech) are in high demand.

KPMG: Double-Digit Growth and Scenario Planning

KPMG’s revenue grew by double digits in key sectors in early 2025, fueled by its scenario-planning tools for trade wars and geopolitical shifts. The firm’s AI-driven risk analytics and tax/trade expertise are critical for clients in semiconductors, automotive, and electronics—sectors most exposed to tariff disruptions.

Structural Tailwinds: Why This Growth Is Here to Stay

1. Geopolitical Uncertainty: As trade policies shift daily, corporations will continue to outsource strategic decisions to firms with deep expertise.
2. AI-Driven Efficiency: PwC and KPMG’s tech investments (e.g., PwC’s Next Generation Audit platform) are reducing client costs while scaling services.
3. Sustainability Linkages: ESG regulations are merging with trade compliance, creating new consulting niches. For example, clients now seek “nature-positive” supply chains to meet both tariff and ESG requirements.
4. LMA Consulting’s 200% Inquiry Spike: Smaller players like LMA Consulting are also thriving, signaling sector-wide demand.

The Investment Case: Consulting ETFs and Undervalued Leaders

The consulting sector is a defensive gem in volatile markets. Here’s how to play it:

ETFs for Diversification

• IYH (iShares U.S. Financials ETF): Includes PwC’s parent, PwC Holdings, and other consulting firms. It’s up 15% YTD as trade tensions intensify.
• XLF (Financial Select Sector SPDR Fund): Offers exposure to KPMG’s parent, KPMG LLP, and broader financial services.

Undervalued Trade Advisory Experts

• LMA Consulting: With a 200% surge in client inquiries, its valuation remains low relative to its growth trajectory.
• McKinsey & Company: Its “Geopolitics” practice, launched in 2023, is now a $1 billion revenue stream.

Risks and the Bottom Line

No investment is without risks. Geopolitical détentes or a sudden trade deal could dampen demand. However, given the structural nature of trade policy instability—driven by nationalism, climate policy, and tech decoupling—consulting firms are likely to remain in demand for years.

Call to Action: Allocate Now

The writing is on the wall: consulting firms are the quiet winners of today’s trade wars. Their services are no longer optional—they’re existential for businesses navigating this new reality. Investors should act now, allocating to consulting ETFs or undervalued specialists. The next wave of tariff-driven volatility is coming—and those who bet on the firms solving it will be handsomely rewarded.

This article is for informational purposes only. Investors should conduct their own research or consult a financial advisor before making decisions.