ConstitutionDAO/Tether USDt Market Overview

• ConstitutionDAO/Tether USDt (PEOPLEUSDT) opened at $0.02023 and traded in a narrow range with a high of $0.0203 and a low of $0.02.
• Price closed at $0.0202 with bearish momentum visible in the latter half of the 24-hour window.
• Total volume exceeded 9.6 million USDt, while turnover reached approximately $197,000.
• A key support level appears to have formed near $0.02000, coinciding with multiple closes and a failed breakdown attempt.
• A potential bearish continuation pattern is forming with increasing volatility in the final hour.

ConstitutionDAO/Tether USDt (PEOPLEUSDT) opened at $0.02023 on 2025-09-10 and closed at $0.0202 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-11. The pair reached a high of $0.0203 and a low of $0.02 during the 24-hour window. Total volume traded was 9,637,655.59 USDt, with notional turnover of approximately $197,296.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a bearish consolidation pattern as price broke down from the $0.0203 level and found support near $0.02000, with a notable doji forming around 19:15 ET. A large bearish candle at 19:30 ET confirmed the breakdown, closing near the session low at $0.01978. Subsequent recovery attempts were met with resistance at $0.02000–$0.02003. A bearish engulfing pattern is visible in the 18:30–19:15 window, suggesting continued downward pressure. Key support levels are forming at $0.01999 and $0.02000, with resistance at $0.02005 and $0.02007. A potential target for continuation lies below $0.01985, aligning with a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the previous 15-minute swing.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA and 50-EMA have crossed below price action, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 50-EMA currently sits at ~$0.02010, while the 20-EMA is near $0.02008. For the daily timeframe, the 50-, 100-, and 200-day EMAs are expected to be slightly above current price levels, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias if the 50-day MA continues to drift downward.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has turned negative and is pulling away from the signal line, indicating declining bullish momentum. The histogram is shrinking, confirming waning buying pressure. RSI has settled near 45, a neutral range, but has shown a bearish divergence from the last high, reinforcing the likelihood of further downside. A move below 35 on the RSI could signal a deeper pullback is in play.

Bollinger Bands

Price is currently trading near the lower Bollinger Band, indicating oversold conditions and increased volatility in the final hours of the 24-hour period. The band has widened in the last hour, suggesting a potential breakout or breakdown could follow. A retest of the lower band at $0.01975–$0.01980 may trigger a short-term bounce, but a sustained close below the 20-period moving average could lead to further bearish expansion.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically at 19:30 ET with a candle that traded ~2.77 million USDt, indicating strong bearish conviction. This coincided with the lowest close of the session at $0.01978. Subsequent volume has moderated, but the price has not retraced significantly, suggesting that sellers have maintained control. Notional turnover was highest during the breakdown phase and has since remained steady, indicating continued interest but reduced urgency from either side.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels are aligning with critical support and resistance areas. On the 15-minute chart, a 61.8% retracement lies at $0.01985, a level that could see renewed bearish pressure if tested. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the most recent bearish leg is near $0.0188, a potential longer-term target if the trend persists. A rebound above $0.0202 would invalidate the bearish case and could trigger a 38.2% retracement rally toward $0.0203.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could be constructed around the bearish engulfing and doji patterns identified in the 18:30–19:15 window, combined with RSI divergence and Bollinger Band expansion. A long-term bearish trade could be entered at $0.02000 with a stop-loss above $0.02008 and a target near $0.01975. Given the low volatility and volume in the final hours, a 1%–2% position size is advised to account for slippage. This strategy would benefit from confirmation via a 20-EMA crossover and a close below the 50-EMA on the daily chart for increased conviction.