ConstitutionDAO/Tether USDt Market Overview

• PEOPLEUSDT traded in a 0.01839–0.01927 range, closing at 0.01874
• Momentum diverged late session, with RSI topping 50 before retreating
• Volume spiked to 6.9M at 01:30 ET but failed to confirm a bullish breakout
• Bollinger Band contraction at 01:30 ET preceded a 0.0192 high
• Fibonacci retracements suggest 0.01865–0.0190 as likely consolidation

At 12:00 ET, ConstitutionDAO/Tether USDt (PEOPLEUSDT) opened at 0.01844 and closed at 0.01874 after a 24-hour range of 0.01839–0.01927. Total volume amounted to 94.6M, with a notional turnover of $1.76M. The pair showed a modest rebound from early bearish momentum, with key technical levels emerging in the latter half of the session.

Structure & Formations

PEOPLEUSDT formed a bullish engulfing pattern at 03:15 ET when it moved from 0.01917 to 0.01922 on a 759,249 volume spike, but failed to hold above 0.01927. A significant bearish reversal pattern emerged around 07:00 ET, with a doji forming near 0.01878–0.01879. Support levels formed at 0.01865 (38.2% Fib), 0.01872 (61.8% Fib), and 0.01849 (psychological pivot), with resistance at 0.01892 and 0.01905.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed over mid-session, forming a potential bullish crossover. However, this failed to hold, and price retested key support levels. The 50-period MA currently rests at 0.01879, while the 20-period is at 0.01882. RSI peaked above 50 at 01:30 ET and has since retraced, suggesting a lack of conviction in the upward move. MACD lines showed a bearish divergence in the last two hours, with price failing to break above the signal line despite a 0.01927 high.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Band contraction occurred between 01:30–03:00 ET, followed by a sharp expansion. Price peaked at the upper band (0.01927) and then fell back toward the midline, ending near the lower band (0.01865). This suggests a potential consolidation phase ahead, with volatility likely to remain elevated. The widening bands indicate increased uncertainty in the market.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracements were identified during the 0.01839–0.01927 swing. The 38.2% level (0.01865) and 61.8% level (0.01872) acted as strong support. The 100% retracement level at 0.01839 was briefly tested and rejected, suggesting a higher probability of continuation above this level. On the daily chart, a 61.8% Fib retracement near 0.01895 could be a potential resistance zone for the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy for PEOPLEUSDT could involve using the 20-period and 50-period moving average crossover as an entry signal, combined with RSI as a filter. For instance, a long position could be triggered when the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA, and RSI is between 30 and 50, suggesting a potential bullish reversal. An exit rule could involve a stop-loss at the 38.2% Fibonacci level or a trailing stop just below the 20-period MA. Given the volatility observed in the past 24 hours, this strategy may benefit from incorporating Bollinger Band width as a filter for market noise.