ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) Market Overview

Summary
• Price action shows a bearish drift with intraday volatility peaking near 0.01028 before retreating.
• Volume remained elevated in the early evening, but declined after 02:00 ET.
• RSI dipped into oversold territory near the end of the period, hinting at potential rebound.
• Bollinger Bands reflect a moderate contraction, suggesting a period of consolidation.

Opening at 0.01004 on 2025-11-05 at 12:00 ET, ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) drifted lower over the 24-hour window, reaching a high of 0.01028 and a low of 0.01. By the close at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-06, the pair settled at 0.0098. Total volume across the 15-minute candles reached 90,485,275.59999999 units, with notional turnover amounting to approximately 68.05 BTC (assuming USDT value as $1). The price action shows a clear downtrend, punctuated by a few minor reversals, but lacks a definitive breakout from its recent range.

Structure & Formations

The price action revealed multiple bearish signals, including a long-legged doji near 0.01016 and a bearish engulfing pattern following an intraday high of 0.01028. Key support levels were identified around 0.01 and 0.00992, both of which the price tested in the final hours. Resistance levels appear at 0.01015 and 0.01022, which have acted as ceilings for upward attempts. The structure suggests that further bearish pressure could see the pair test the 0.0097–0.0098 range unless buyers emerge to defend the lower end of the consolidation zone.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages have remained bearishly aligned, with the price consistently printing below both. The 20 MA crossed under the 50 MA mid-session, reinforcing a weak short-term trend. On a daily timeframe, the 50-period MA at 0.01004 aligns with the open price, but the 100-period and 200-period MAs are positioned slightly higher, indicating longer-term bullish bias has yet to materialize. This divergence suggests caution may be warranted in near-term trade setups.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed a bearish crossover in the early evening hours, with the line dipping below the signal line, coinciding with a price pullback. RSI confirmed bearish momentum, reaching a low of 28 in the last candle of the session, signaling an oversold condition. This could be a potential trigger point for short-term buyers looking to accumulate on weakness. However, the RSI remains below 30 for most of the session, suggesting that bullish conviction is limited and buyers may be cautious entering without a clear reversal pattern.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands displayed a moderate contraction as the pair drifted lower, tightening around the 0.01004–0.01012 range mid-session. This suggests a period of consolidation ahead of a potential breakout. However, the price failed to break above the upper band or below the lower band, indicating indecision among traders. The current width of the bands suggests that volatility is not yet at extreme levels, and a breakout may require a catalyst such as a news event or increased on-chain activity.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained elevated in the early part of the session, peaking around 0.01012 and 0.01022 with volumes above 6.5 million units. However, volume declined significantly after 02:00 ET, with most candles posting under 2 million units. Notional turnover mirrored this trend, peaking at 0.01006 before tapering off. The divergence between price and volume in the latter part of the session suggests a lack of conviction among buyers. A rebound without a corresponding volume pickup may lack sustainability, while a sustained move to the downside could indicate increased shorting activity.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing high at 0.01028 and low at 0.00992, the key levels are as follows: 23.6% at 0.01017, 38.2% at 0.01010, and 61.8% at 0.01002. The price has tested the 38.2% and 61.8% levels twice during the session, suggesting that these are areas of psychological resistance and support. A break of 0.01002 could see the pair heading toward the 0.0097 level, while a rebound above 0.01017 may offer short-term relief. These levels can serve as potential targets or stops for traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent RSI dip into oversold territory and the divergence between price and volume in the final hours, a potential RSI-based entry strategy may warrant testing. A backtest using the RSI(14) indicator at the 30 threshold, with a 1-day holding period, could evaluate the effectiveness of buying on oversold conditions. This approach would align with the observed Fibonacci retracement levels and the bearish engulfing patterns that emerged mid-session. If the backtest is run using PEOPLEUSDT as the asset and SPY as a benchmark, it could offer insights into whether RSI oversold entries are effective in this market context.