ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) 24-Hour Market Overview

• Price dipped to a 24-hour low of $0.02001 before stabilizing, showing a bearish bias.
• Volume surged during the late-ET afternoon dip, confirming downside pressure.
• RSI and MACD showed bearish momentum, with no signs of overbought conditions.
• Volatility expanded in the 6–8 a.m. ET window, followed by a sharp contraction.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near the session’s high, suggesting further downside risk.

ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) opened at $0.02036 on September 20 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0201 on September 21 at the same time, with a high of $0.02074 and a low of $0.02001. Total volume amounted to 35.8 million, while notional turnover reached $6.63 million, reflecting strong bearish engagement.

Structure & Formations

Key support levels emerged around $0.0201–0.02015 and $0.02001, with the latter acting as a short-term floor. Resistance held at $0.0204–0.02045 and $0.0206–0.0207. A bearish engulfing pattern formed between 5:15–5:30 a.m. ET at $0.02038–0.02039, followed by a large bearish candle confirming bearish momentum. A doji near $0.02021 at 10:45–11:00 a.m. ET signaled indecision and exhaustion before the price continued lower.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both remained above the price, indicating bearish bias. The 50-period line crossed below the 20-period at around 7 a.m. ET, confirming a bearish crossover. On the daily chart, the 50-period moving average sat at $0.02055, well above the close, while the 200-period MA stood at $0.02065, reinforcing bearish sentiment for the broader trend.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative at 6 a.m. ET and remained below the signal line for most of the session, suggesting bearish momentum. The histogram contracted briefly during the afternoon but remained largely bearish. RSI dropped below 30 in the 9 a.m. to 10 a.m. ET window, entering oversold territory, but failed to generate a strong reversal. This suggests that while the pair was oversold, bearish pressure remained intact.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded sharply during the 6–8 a.m. ET window, with the upper band reaching $0.02076 and the lower band falling to $0.02036. The price tested the lower band multiple times in the late-ET afternoon and evening, with a final close just above it at $0.0201. A contraction in the bands during 10 a.m. to 12 p.m. ET signaled a potential pause in volatility but failed to spark a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the early-morning decline, peaking at over 5.1 million at 7:15 a.m. ET, and again during the afternoon and evening at over 2.2 million. Turnover also surged during these periods, confirming the price action. However, a divergence occurred in the 10 a.m. to 12 p.m. ET window, where volume declined but the price continued lower, hinting at fading bearish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the recent 15-minute swing from $0.02074 to $0.02001, the 61.8% level sat at $0.02019 and acted as a minor resistance. The 38.2% level at $0.02042 served as a prior high and failed to hold. On the daily chart, a larger Fibonacci from $0.02075 to $0.01998 suggested key support at $0.01998 and resistance at $0.02039. Price closed near the 38.2% level, suggesting potential consolidation ahead.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves a bearish breakout trigger based on the 15-minute candle closing below a lower Bollinger Band combined with RSI below 30 and MACD bearish crossover. This was observed at 6:15 a.m. ET, where the price broke the lower band at $0.02048, RSI dropped to 28, and MACD turned negative. A stop-loss at the upper band of $0.02068 and a target at the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $0.02019 would have yielded a 1.38% return on a short position, confirming the effectiveness of the setup. The recent consolidation near $0.0201 may provide an opportunity for a similar entry if a retracement back above $0.02022 occurs.