ConstitutionDAO/Tether Market Overview: Volatile 24-Hour Session with Divergence Signals

• ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) closed at $0.02121 after a 24-hour session marked by a significant intraday high of $0.02180 and low of $0.02031.
• Price surged midday before consolidating into a tighter range, with volume spiking during the 19:45–20:00 ET period.
• RSI suggests overbought conditions earlier in the session, followed by a pullback into neutral territory.
• Bollinger Bands reflected a sharp volatility expansion as price tested the upper band, followed by a contraction.
• Divergences between price and turnover emerged in the final 6 hours, indicating potential short-term caution.

24-Hour Price Action and Volume Summary

ConstitutionDAO/Tether (PEOPLEUSDT) opened at $0.02053 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.02121 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET. The pair reached an intraday high of $0.02180 and a low of $0.02031, with a total traded volume of 122,163,443.86 and a notional turnover of ~$2,597,327 (based on cumulative volume × close prices). The session was marked by a strong rally, especially between 18:00 and 20:00 ET, followed by consolidation and a slight pullback near the close.

Structure & Key Levels

The 24-hour chart showed a bullish breakout from a 1-week consolidation range, with a key support level at $0.02043 and resistance confirmed at $0.02180. A bullish engulfing pattern appeared at the 19:30 ET candle, signaling a potential short-term reversal. A doji formed at 02:45 ET on the following day, suggesting indecision. The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed into bullish territory during the rally, aligning with the breakout.

MACD, RSI, and Momentum Signals

The MACD histogram expanded positively during the 18:00–20:00 ET rally, confirming the strength of the move, but began to contract by 06:00 ET on 2025-09-18. RSI reached overbought levels (~69) at the peak but pulled back into neutral territory by the end of the session. This suggests a potential exhaustion in the short-term rally.

Bollinger Bands showed significant expansion during the rally phase, with price pushing the upper band multiple times. However, a contraction followed as the market consolidated, indicating a possible period of consolidation before the next directional move.

Volume and Turnover Analysis

Volume spiked during the 19:45 ET candle (volume of 3,172,766) and the 19:30 ET candle (volume of 1,686,383.8), aligning with price highs. However, in the final 6 hours of the session, turnover did not support the continued upward move, suggesting divergences and potential short-term risks. The highest notional turnover (~$65,500) occurred at 19:45 ET.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 19:30–20:30 ET swing, key levels include 38.2% at ~$0.02144 and 61.8% at ~$0.02112. Price found initial support at the 61.8% level during the pullback, suggesting that further retracements may find buyers at the 50% level (~$0.02129) before testing the 38.2% level again.

Forward-Looking View and Risk Considerations

The market appears to be consolidating gains, with key support and resistance levels defined. While the short-term momentum appears to be fading, the bullish structure remains intact. Investors should monitor for a break of $0.02180 for a potential resumption of the rally or a drop below $0.02111 for a deeper retracement.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a breakout-based approach using the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart as a signal line, combined with RSI divergence as a filter. A long entry would be triggered when the price closes above the 50-period MA and RSI remains above 50. A short entry would be considered when the price closes below the 50-period MA and RSI drops below 40. Stop-loss orders could be placed just below swing lows or above swing highs, depending on the position. This strategy could be tested on historical PEOPLEUSDT data to evaluate its effectiveness across different volatility regimes and market conditions.